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Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
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17 Feb, 12 tweets, 10 min read
It is increasingly clear that the EU vaccine supply problems have bottomed out and that the news will be considerably better going forward. This shifts the "vaccine delivery problem" firmly on to the EU MS, whose capacity to quickly scale up roll outs may be severely tested. 1/n
The recent good news are numerous: Today an additional delivery 200mn @BioNTech_Group/@Pfizer vaccines to the EU, incl. crucially 75mn in Q2 was announced. 2/n biontechse.gcs-web.com/news-releases/…
Yesterday @EMA_News received the application for approval of the single-jab J&J/Jannsen vaccine, expected to come during the month of March. 3/n ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-re…
Several EU MS have now announced updated vaccine rollout plans including expected deliveries of still-to-be-approved vaccines. I discussed the Norwegian scenarios from @Folkehelseinst showing how NO continues to plan for full 100% vaccination of 16y+ 4/n
by July. Earlier this week, the DK authorities updated their planned vaccine rollout and brought the expected 100% vacc'ing of 16y+ pop completion FORWARD by a week or so to LATE JUNE 2021. The expected future vacc deliveries to DK implies that 5/n sst.dk/-/media/Udgive…
they (roughly like NO with new vaccs) expect to receive a # of vacc = the equivalent of 160+% of 16y+ population by June 2021. With a lot of these J&J/Jannsen single jab vaccines, full vaccination (or at least the offer given to all) is expected by late June 2021. This plan 6/n
BTW is considerably faster for full completion than the schedule discussed by UK Vaccine Taskforce's Clive Dix recently (Aug/Sep or though sooner if needed). The obvious question is why - given population weighted vacc deliveries in the EU is it not 7/n
the ambition of ALL EU MS to - like scheduled by NO and DK - finish vaccine rollout BEFORE the summer? The financial costs are irrelevant, given the economic gains from earlier reopening and the human health benefits likely even larger from an "near normal summer". What is 8/n
preventing say @jensspahn or @olivierveran (insert any MS health minister) of from adopting the same level of vaccine rollout ambition in GE or FR? Lack of government capacity? Inability to mobilize volunteers? I honestly cannot think of any good excuse for not doing so now? 9/n
DK gov over the WE said they wanted to be sure up to 7% of pop could be vacc'ed a DAY and surely it should be the role of the @EU_Commission to ensure "best practices" are disseminated quickly throughout the EU? EU Vaccine pessimism must not prevail. END sum.dk/nyheder/2021/f…
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Happy to report that Sweden has now also published updated vaccine delivery schedules indicating it also finish vaccinating 100% by June. Why not all of the EU? folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber…

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More from @jfkirkegaard

Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
25 Jan
EU vaccine deliveries appear to be slipping from both @pfizer/@BioNTech_Group and @AstraZeneca, causing supply constraints to begin to bite in more MS. Yet despite increasing vaccination speeds in some MS and the EU claiming to be distributing vaccs by population differences 1/13
between member states remain stark on Jan 25 ranging from just 0.4% of total pop vacc'ed in BG, 0.8% in NL to 3.6% in DK and 4.5% in MT, while 2. jabs range from ZERO in 9 MS to 0.34% in SN and 0.46% in DK with an EU27+NO total of 1.9% and 0.12% 2. jabs. These remain HUGE 2/13
differences in MS rollouts, highlighting that actual supply constraints are not yet binding in many MS, and that if best practices for 1.+2. jab levels from DK/MT were achieved across the EU, millions of Europeans more would be vaccinated today. Assuming a pop-weighted 3/13
Read 14 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
20 Jan
@joebiden wants 100mn Americans vaccinated in 100days - that means ~115mn or just over 1/3 of all Americans will have received at least first jab by late April. That frankly is a pretty timid and certainly NOT a moonshot, or even enough to get out of lockdowns soon enough. 1/13
@joebiden's plans though are much more ambitious than say France and @EmmanuelMacron, who outrageously just aims to vaccinate 15mn (a little more than 1/4 of pop) elderly and chronically ill before the summer. 2/13 gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir…
This suggests that the most EU countries, like France, which already lags the US in vaccinations- will continue to do so throughout the 1H of 2020 principally due to the unbelievably low level of ambition of their national vaccination programs. Only Denmark currently exceeds 3/13
Read 14 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
19 Jan
Europe has gotten off to a slow start in its Covid-vaccination program. Reasons are several; 1) Full (not emergency like in UK/US) approval of vaccines takes longer. Decision always debatable, but NOT clear that the EMA "didn't do a proper/crucial job" 1/6 lemonde.fr/planete/articl…
2) EU purchased too few vaccines. True, but uncertainty high in the summer of 2020 about which vaccines would ultimately prove successful, while the opposite concern of "too many EU vaccines" is morally dubious, as the EU must donate them before expiry to needy Dev-countries. 2/6
Ultimately, the EU should/could have purchased more vaccines of also the BioNTEC/Moderna variant without worrying about "excess vaccines" - lives would havebeen saved and EU vaccine diplomacy would have been boosted. 3) EU member states have been poorly organized in vaccine 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
26 Nov 20
OK - so what to do now about HU/PL and RoL, since they are obviously not budging? One option is to wait it out and hope the two countries will capitulate, as they need EU money more that Southern members (who have access also to ECB asset purchases). 1/n ft.com/content/b1d3e7…
This strategy has many "institutional merits", as there are huge legal, political and administrative advantages in leaving the current EU-level deal in place IF HU/PL eventually fold first. Maybe they will, but maybe they won't and it might be time for the EU to take out the 2/n
real heavy guns, which when it comes to internal issues (where offering eventual EU membership matters little) usually involves evoking financial market pressure, too. When dealing with non-Euro members, this is less straightforward than was the case with Greece, as the @ECB 3/n
Read 13 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
31 Oct 20
I very very rarely read opinion pieces that make my stomach turn, but being married to a French speaking Muslim of North African origin, this one did. The first and by far most numerous victims of the dogmatic Islam on display in it are the liberal 1/n
politico.eu/article/france…
free thinking Muslims that has always sustained Islamic urban life. To read that French secularism quote "stigmatizes and humiliates even the most moderate or secular Muslims, many of whom do not understand French secularists’ obsessive focus on Islam, the veil, daily prayers 2/n
or Islamic teachings." is patently absurd. This group don't care about French secularism, don't wear the veil, or pray daily in public, or for that matter feel they need to consult Islamic teachings before they go on with their lives in perfect harmony with their neighbors 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Jacob F Kirkegaard Profile picture
29 May 20
As an early adopter of the "Hamiltonian Moment" description of what has recently happened in the EU with the new FR-DE proposal and now the EUR750bn @EU_Commission pplan that now seem to have become a punching bag for too negative views of these developments - a thread: 1/n
1) Hamilton didn't establish a full US fiscal union, but rather managed to mutualize 35-40% of US GDP in states' debts from their "shared struggle" during the War of Independence 1775-83. Hamilton and his successors though quickly paid down this debt, so it was only 5-6% of 2/n
US GDP by the time the next big war (of 1812) broke out, relying almost wholly on tariff revenue. As such, Hamilton failed to convince his contemporaries about the benefits of a "large liquid US sovereign debt market". Redistributive US federal taxation came only with 16th 3/n
Read 9 tweets

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