Thread by @JesseJenkins

#TexasBlackout update, 9:24am Central time: the grid operator @ERCOT_ISO's latest data is STILL reporting over 30 GW of thermal generators offline. ERCOT's 'extreme' generator outage scenario planned for just 14 GW.

Wind power is also at only 1,000 MW, below ~1,500 MW ERCOT planned for in an 'extreme low wind' scenario. So that's not helping either, but a far smaller contribution to supply shortage than the 30,000 MW of thermal plant outages that have persisted since Monday morning.

Demand served now is 44,539 MW, well below ~69,000 MW of peak demand experienced on Sunday in similar temps as today. We can't know the counterfactual of how much demand there would be if supply was adequate, but its probably on order of 20,000 MW higher than current levels.

During daytime hours, solar power is helping fill a small portionof the shortfall, generating about 1,900 MW now, vs 0-300 MW that ERCOT counts on solar for during winter peak events. That'll go up through the day, and of course dissapear again at night.

NRC shows South Texas Station #1 nuclear reactor, which = ~1,300 MW, was offline yesterday after going down on 2/15 due to frozen sensor that gave inaccurate readings on a line providing cooling water to the plant. As a precaution, reactor went offline & may still be down today.

In sum, as #TexasBlackout enters its third straight day, Texans are still where they are when they started, about 20,000 MW or more short of what they need to meet demand, with 30,000 MW of thermal generators, mostly gas plants, offline accounting for nearly all of the shortfall.

It appears neither ERCOT or power plant operators have made much progress at all getting more generators back online. Outage reports ERCOT automatically logs (⤵️) have consistently showed about 25-30 GW offline with forecasts of reduced outages that keep failing to materialize!

That's left millions of Texans without power in freezing temps for days! Accounts of extremely uncomfortable & potentially deadly situations in my feed are harrowing. I hope things improve today, but so far, Texas's energy system is in the same bad shape its been in since Monday.

Sources used above:

-ERCOT winter reliability planning assessment ercot.com/content/wcm/li…

-ERCOT realtime system conditions: ercot.com/content/cdr/ht…

-ERCOT hourly capacity outage reports: mis.ercot.com/misapp/GetRepo…

-Houston historic weather for past days: timeanddate.com/weather/usa/ho…

For more background on the #TexasFreeze #TexasBlackout, see my prior threads here:

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361691683222654980

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361698545649258502

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361736130044039175

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361755527257202696

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361785507596877825

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361832670062387200

Update, @ERCOT_ISO just reported "We gained some MWs overnight but are back to 14,000 MW of load shed; lost east DC-tie imports due to Midwest power emergency. We hope to reduce outages over the course of the day."

https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1362046636956913667

A total clusterfuzzle!

Update:

https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1362160723552579595