🧵Short thread on Texas weather, climate and robust decision making
NY Times @bradplumer reports what the "worst case" planning scenario was by ERCOT for winter 2020/21
nytimes.com/2021/02/16/cli…
But was it really a "worst case"?
Far from it ...
NY Times @bradplumer reports what the "worst case" planning scenario was by ERCOT for winter 2020/21
nytimes.com/2021/02/16/cli…
But was it really a "worst case"?
Far from it ...
Where does 2011 sit in terms of recent history?
EIA has heating degree days for "West South Central" US (TX, OK, AR, LA)
Turns out 2011 ranks 24th most HDD for the region since 1973
2011 was not a "worst case" -- not even close
Source: eia.gov/energyexplaine…
EIA has heating degree days for "West South Central" US (TX, OK, AR, LA)
Turns out 2011 ranks 24th most HDD for the region since 1973
2011 was not a "worst case" -- not even close
Source: eia.gov/energyexplaine…
It's one thing to be worried abt wild, unpredictable weather from climate change, it is another to not be prepared for, say, a repeat of 1989 which occurred within living memory
Of course, Texans were warned that cold winters were rapidly disappearing... climatexas.tamu.edu/products/texas…
Of course, Texans were warned that cold winters were rapidly disappearing... climatexas.tamu.edu/products/texas…
After everyone has their say about their favorite renewable or fossil energy technology, I'd encourage a close look at ERCOT decision making and how robust it was to actual observed climate history, cause 2011 ain't the worst
& MW above should be GW, sorry, need an edit button!
& MW above should be GW, sorry, need an edit button!
I do sometimes worry that the heavy focus on future climate (important of course) has come to some degree at the expense of old school climatology & the need to prepare for the past
Imagine in Miami based hurricane planning on "worst case" since 2000 ...
Imagine in Miami based hurricane planning on "worst case" since 2000 ...
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