🧵Short thread on Texas weather, climate and robust decision making

NY Times @bradplumer reports what the "worst case" planning scenario was by ERCOT for winter 2020/21
nytimes.com/2021/02/16/cli…

But was it really a "worst case"?
Far from it ...
The 67MW "worst case" comes from using 2011 winter as an analogue
Source: ercot.com/news/releases/…
Where does 2011 sit in terms of recent history?
EIA has heating degree days for "West South Central" US (TX, OK, AR, LA)
Turns out 2011 ranks 24th most HDD for the region since 1973
2011 was not a "worst case" -- not even close
Source: eia.gov/energyexplaine…
It's one thing to be worried abt wild, unpredictable weather from climate change, it is another to not be prepared for, say, a repeat of 1989 which occurred within living memory

Of course, Texans were warned that cold winters were rapidly disappearing... climatexas.tamu.edu/products/texas…
After everyone has their say about their favorite renewable or fossil energy technology, I'd encourage a close look at ERCOT decision making and how robust it was to actual observed climate history, cause 2011 ain't the worst

& MW above should be GW, sorry, need an edit button!
I do sometimes worry that the heavy focus on future climate (important of course) has come to some degree at the expense of old school climatology & the need to prepare for the past

Imagine in Miami based hurricane planning on "worst case" since 2000 ...

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

17 Feb
🧵I took a look at the recent AIR report on hurricanes and climate change. A few fatal flaws, unfortunately.
Fatal flaw 1
RCP8.5 as BAU
Fatal flaw 2
AIR cites GFDL CMIP5/RCP4.5 to justify projected 35% increase in Cat 4/5 by 2050 doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…

But GFDL actually says 35% increase in Cat 4/5 hurr days, not frequency w/ only increase in freq is in NE Pacific & globally -18% total hurricanes (table below)
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
🧵 on new paper:
Raupach et al 2021 on climate change and hailstorms
nature.com/articles/s4301…
Summary of trends in hail-prone regions around the world
TL;DR = no up trends, some down
Very cool figure on global hail probability
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
🧵Good news and bad news on the Biden Administration's efforts to consider a "social cost of carbon" via an Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Good news
The IWG is (apparently, for now) employing a methodology that does not use the RCPs or SSPs
nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
Bad news
The methodology of the IWG employs scenarios that are more out-of-date than the RCPs/SSPs -- selected from the EMF-22 scenarios
nap.edu/catalog/24651/…
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
🧵1⃣
A clear example of misuse of RCP8.5 to present an implausible future

1. Use most extreme climate sensitivity
2. Use >95th percentile outcome
3. Use SSP5-85 as conditionally deterministic
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…

With these assumptions "cannot exclude" SLR of 1.24m in 2100
2⃣
Here would be an equally appropriate statement from the same research:

"If the real world behaves as simulated with CanESM5 (highest EffCS of CMIP6: 5.62 K), we can exclude a GMSL rise of >0.82 m for SSP2-RCP4.5 with more than 95% confidence based on IPCC AR5 methods"
3⃣
Worst case scenarios are only worst case scenarios if they exist within an envelope of plausibility

When falling outside that envelope they cease to be worst case scenarios & instead become fictional -- detached from reality

Climate science continues to have a RCP8.5 problem
Read 4 tweets
8 Feb
Very important new preprint (in 2nd round of review at a Nature journal) by array of leading TC researchers on (lack of) 1851-2019 Atlantic hurricane trends
researchsquare.com/article/rs-153…

Quote below on US landfalls ...
Remarkable
1970s and 1980s may have been the least active period for hurricanes in the Atlantic in centuries
Is climate change causing a reduction in US hurricanes?
Maybe
Read 5 tweets
3 Feb
RIP all coal growth scenarios

According to @GlobalEnergyMon 2020 saw a net addition of coal capacity of 12.5 GW, part of a coal collapse over past decade

Expect capacity change to go negative soon, depending on China policies

globalenergymonitor.org/projects/globa…
Reminder that all scenarios underpinning climate research project coal growth to mid-century & most to 2100
Figure via @jritch (Ritchie & Dowlatabadi 2017)

The collapse of coal is very good news for the planet but requires a major reset among researchers
This paper has the details, comments welcomed
doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
Read 4 tweets

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