New report on faith in American democracy and elections from @BrightLineWatch

29% of respondents say they'd support dissolving the US into smaller, "like-minded" nations, including 50% of Republicans in the South and 41% of Ds on west-coast states

brightlinewatch.org/american-democ…
@BrightLineWatch I read a lot of polling data about how polarized and hopelessly divided many Americans are, but this report showing that one-third of people favor breaking up the nation is perhaps the most distressing
In terms of still having faith in "the people," it is reassuring to see that a clear majority of Americans still want their country to stay intact — but that's, like, kinda a minimum bar
This.... seems pretty bad: only around 60% of people who approved of Trump in early February said it was "important" or "essential" for our democracy to not have any political violence. Big Trump-driven polarization on saying equal voice & high-turnout elex are important.
A clear majority of Trump voters in southern states are in favor of breaking off from the United States to form a new country. A new "confederation" of states, you might call it

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More from @gelliottmorris

19 Feb
I really wonder how different our conversation about "the future of polling" would be if people just lowered their expectations for horse race precision down to the appropriate level
I am not denying that polling error exists, merely arguing that slightly-larger-than-average errors should be less surprising to people. I think this tweet proves my point. Four points of bias on vote share is not rare, nor does it make polling useless
The easiest way to make progress might just be for pollsters to double whatever traditional margin of sampling error they're reporting. (Would not be opposed to arguments in favor of tripling.)

Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
Some people have suggested that this may be at least partially driven by Republicans who are favorable toward Biden choosing not to call themselves Republicans any more, as they see the party drifting further to the right. I think the opposite is happening, actually. Some data:
Sample sizes for some of these groups are small, so be wary of trying to infer too much, but our Economist/YouGov data suggest show that the Republicans who are favorable to Trump / disapprove of Biden might be the ones who have left; see the big increase in Trump-voting Indies.
If Trump voters are mad at the party leadership who voted to convict Trump and are shirking the party label — as the embrace of Trump's calls for a Patriot Party would suggest — then we would expect GOP opinion toward Biden to get _warmer_, not colder.
Read 5 tweets
16 Feb
Since Nov 2020, there has been a significant decline in the share of voters calling themselves Republicans, according to The Economist/YouGov polls. A monthly average of 42% of voters called themselves Reps before 11/3; today, 37% do. Capitol riot may have accelerated the trend.
This is the first sign I've seen that Republicans might need to take their de-registration problems seriously. Although there was a similar decline for Democrats after they lost the 2016 election, the trend didn't revert to pre-election levels until just before the 2018 midterms.
My prior is that Reps will stage a similar recovery over the next 2 yrs, but the post-Nov decline in GOP self-identification is the steepest I've seen in YouGov's data since 2016, so it could be different this time.

PS I'm not seeing any abnormal weights from non-response issues
Read 6 tweets
14 Feb
We talk a lot in American political discourse about “tyranny of the majority,” but the real problem is the opposite: letting <40% of the population overrule the other >60% will probably not work out in the long run. (GOP Senators represent 44% of Americans but have 50 seats.)
Obviously, ther3 should be reasonable safeguards for the political minority. But more often than not the “tyrannical minority” has been made into a boogeyman for people seeking to impose minoritarian will over the rest of the people. Sadly, it has usually worked (for a while).
One thing people forget a lot is that America’s political and electoral institutions were built long before the idea of true majoritarian popular sovereignty was accepted by most people. That’s true even when the founders were restricting rights to white landowning men.
Read 5 tweets
13 Feb
Lots of “mainstream” political strategists & consultants are wedded to poorly calibrated, ideologically-informed beliefs about what is possible electorally, and tend to read that into data. Seems to me that political data journalists have proved them wrong more often than not.
My point is that when we think about who tells “data stories,” there is a lot more of ‘x political journalists repeats y inaccurate, ideologically-driven belief about campaigns/elections” than “z data analyst tells it likes it is and is vindicated.”
Like, I and others got a lot of heat for saying that Dems would benefit, all else equal, from higher turnout, esp if 2016-2018 trends among whites continued. That is... exactly what happened in Georgia! It wasn’t data folks writing GA off, it was “insiders.”
Read 6 tweets
11 Feb
Updated numbers (as of 2/8): So far in 2021, 0.6% of registered Republicans in AZ & PA have changed their party registration. For Democrats, it’s 0.2%. In other words, 99.4% of Reps and 99.8% of Dems have stayed with their parties. A little deceleration in the past week or two.
So, uh, not quite an exodus
Net change away from the GOP is about 1/10th of Biden’s margin of victory in PA and AZ — and that overstates the danger to Republicans since most of these switchers are to NPD/Other and will end up voting against Democrats next time anyway.

Read 6 tweets

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