We talk a lot in American political discourse about “tyranny of the majority,” but the real problem is the opposite: letting <40% of the population overrule the other >60% will probably not work out in the long run. (GOP Senators represent 44% of Americans but have 50 seats.)
Obviously, ther3 should be reasonable safeguards for the political minority. But more often than not the “tyrannical minority” has been made into a boogeyman for people seeking to impose minoritarian will over the rest of the people. Sadly, it has usually worked (for a while).
One thing people forget a lot is that America’s political and electoral institutions were built long before the idea of true majoritarian popular sovereignty was accepted by most people. That’s true even when the founders were restricting rights to white landowning men.
Let me put this another way: If your theory for how the government should work was “people should almost always get what they want,” you probably wouldn’t make the Senate or Electoral College — either as we have them today, or in their original design in 1787.
The second tweet was supposed to say “tyrannical majority.” I’m not going to redo the whole thread though //end

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More from @gelliottmorris

13 Feb
Lots of “mainstream” political strategists & consultants are wedded to poorly calibrated, ideologically-informed beliefs about what is possible electorally, and tend to read that into data. Seems to me that political data journalists have proved them wrong more often than not.
My point is that when we think about who tells “data stories,” there is a lot more of ‘x political journalists repeats y inaccurate, ideologically-driven belief about campaigns/elections” than “z data analyst tells it likes it is and is vindicated.”
Like, I and others got a lot of heat for saying that Dems would benefit, all else equal, from higher turnout, esp if 2016-2018 trends among whites continued. That is... exactly what happened in Georgia! It wasn’t data folks writing GA off, it was “insiders.”
Read 6 tweets
11 Feb
Updated numbers (as of 2/8): So far in 2021, 0.6% of registered Republicans in AZ & PA have changed their party registration. For Democrats, it’s 0.2%. In other words, 99.4% of Reps and 99.8% of Dems have stayed with their parties. A little deceleration in the past week or two.
So, uh, not quite an exodus
Net change away from the GOP is about 1/10th of Biden’s margin of victory in PA and AZ — and that overstates the danger to Republicans since most of these switchers are to NPD/Other and will end up voting against Democrats next time anyway.

Read 6 tweets
10 Feb
The evidence Dems are presenting at Trump’s trial is pretty damn terrifying. A reminder of just how far radicalization on the right has gone. Some data:

- 20-40% of GOP partisans think violence is justified*
- Upwards of 15% might even *enjoy* it

That’s like ~20-40m people...
*To some degree and depending on the conditions.

Some reading:

washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…

stevenwwebster.com/research/schad…
It is totally fair to point out that Dems are about as likely as Reps (in polls) to say political violence can be justified. But we also have to acknowledge that only one side of the aisle stormed Congress to try and murder the VP and Speaker of the House.
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
Re: Public opinion on schools: People should note that the vast majority of parents saying they want kids to “return” belong to the white, professional, insured class. Parents of color (many in multigenerational households) desperately want their children to stay remote.
A new wrinkle in racial disparities in education is that the divide on covid is also happening WITHIN schools — IE in big urban high schools with sizable white and POC populations, the data I’ve seen show nearly unanimous POC opposition to “returning”

Yes, there certainly are interactions with pop density and student-to-teacher ratios

Read 4 tweets
5 Feb
People are really running wild with this stuff. Totally unwarranted IMO. Just a fraction of a fraction of GOP members have left on net — maybe a quarter of a percent of the national party reg. Roughly ~99.7% of GOP voters remain. This is not a party in crisis
Party registration is not the same as vote choice. I still think it’s less than an even bet whether Biden’s vote share goes up from 2020 to 2024. History is not on his side here

I think the polarization interaction is more important here, and certainly that the Bush 04 example isn’t instructive of the trend, but I could be wrong. Anyway, the point is that people should stop covering the party reg data as doomsday for the GOP.

Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
Hard for me to admit, but honestly folks, we have no reason not to think the same biases that hurt most polls in Nov 2020 aren't artificially boosting Biden's approval rating right now. Eg there are huge differences between polls that use only demo v demo + political weights.
To believe that Biden is at 61% approval you have to also think that about 1/5th of Trump voters approve of Biden now, which seems... tough. The average seems much closer.
Two points: (1) I guess biased estimates are still useful, if you're aware of the bias.

(2) Of course you can, if you aren't expecting polls to be magically precise (they never will be) and accept a pretty large margin of error
Read 7 tweets

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