By the way, this appears to be a reboot of the theory of "race suicide" from the early 20th century. W.S. Wallace claimed that immigrants caused native-born people to work harder and have fewer kids, this negating the effect of immigration on population.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_suic…
But note that Wallace argued that immigration lowers fertility by making people work HARDER! Carney argues that immigration lowers fertility by REDUCING work.

Remember, the only thing that matters to the anti-immigration people is the policy conclusion: Brown Men Bad.
Here's U.S. fertility rates since 1980

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More from @Noahpinion

19 Feb
1/OK, here's a thread about my beloved home state of Texas.

I strongly believe that Texas CAN be The Future if it wants to. But not if it clings to dying technologies.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/texas-vs-the…
2/Texas governor Greg Abbott is going on TV and lying through his teeth about the causes of the blackouts!

3/And this is providing fuel for culture-warrior liars like Tucker Carlson to go on a crusade against renewable energy:

Read 13 tweets
19 Feb
1/Here's a thread about the column that Larry Summers called "the year's most naive".

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/Inflation is low. So why are Summers and a couple other people (like Olivier Blanchard) warning that government borrowing and spending could lead to rampant inflation?

Heck, the spending they're scared about is smaller than the CARES Act!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/larry-summer…
3/Well, my (charitable) answer is that they are afraid of a POLICY REGIME CHANGE.

To most people, "regime change" sounds like a war, but in econ, it means a change in the way policymakers make policy.
Read 19 tweets
15 Feb
1/Today's Substack post is about the U.S. vaccination effort.

It's not good enough. BUT, it's better than almost the entire rest of the world!

And I don't think Americans have collectively realized this fact yet.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-us-vacci…
2/This is not yet enough vaccination.

New variants are spreading, some more transmissible, some more antibody-resistant. To outrun them, we need to keep ramping up both production and distribution as quickly as possible.

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
3/BUT, while it's not good enough yet, the U.S. is ahead of nearly every country in the world!

Israel is tops, as everyone knows. But the only sizeable country ahead of the U.S. is the UK.
Read 21 tweets
13 Feb
1/Today's Substack post is about Biden's chances of becoming a truly transformational president -- someone who will move U.S. economic policy onto a leftward track, as Reagan once moved it onto a rightward track.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-biden-the…
2/Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has a theory that says we're due for a "reconstructive" President who will define a new paradigm for the next few decades.

thenation.com/article/archiv…
3/Like most people, I thought Biden would be an incrementalist centrist who would get little done other than restoring competence and morality to the executive branch (and that alone would have been plenty of reason to vote for him!).
Read 15 tweets
13 Feb
1/OK folks, let's talk about BITCOIN!!

Many many people have proclaimed the death of Bitcoin over the years, but it looks like it's here to stay.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/triumph-of-t…
2/Remember the big Bitcoin bubble and crash of late 2017/2018?

Well if you bought at the TOP of that bubble, you've now TRIPLED your investment.
3/In fact, this is typical. Asset classes that experience bubbles and crashes usually recover.

Here's the NASDAQ (in inflation-adjusted terms). It's way past its 2000 bubble peak!
Read 23 tweets
12 Feb
1/Here's a @bopinion post about why we need a National Population Strategy.

People don't realize it, but our country is headed for the kind of rapid aging that other rich countries have experienced.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/First let's talk about fertility rates.

America used to have substantially higher fertility than other rich countries. That is pretty much over.
3/Much of this is due to a huge decline among Hispanic women's fertility rates.

(Which in turn was driven by the end of large-scale Hispanic immigration.)

childtrends.org/publications/h…
Read 14 tweets

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