Thread by @JBuchananBKK

Thread: This article claims that the "Tatmadaw has so far refrained from a trademark bloody crackdown in a clear sign of new thinking and tactics". But there's a glaring error in this analysis - it's ahistorical and there's nothing "new" happening (yet)
asiatimes.com/2021/02/why-my…

Protests in 1988, in what's known as the "8888" uprising, began as early as 13 March, reaching their peak in August. And the brutal crackdown didn't come until 18-21 September. /2

This means the military tried to wait out the protests for around six months, and even endured well over a month of very large scale protests before deciding enough was enough and launching what would become their "trademark bloody crackdown". /3

During the Saffron Revolution in 2007, protests began on 15 August. It wasn't until 26-27 September that the crackdown really began in full, with the military firing on demonstrators and conducting mass arrests and beatings. That's more than a month of the waiting game. /4

We're only on around day 18 of protests at the moment. It may be true that the military will opt for a war of attrition and try to wait out the protests instead of brutally cracking down as it has done in the past - but we just don't know yet./5

And history tells us that trying to "wait out" the protests is something the Tatmadaw has always tried to do...until it decides otherwise. It also tells us that the time for a crackdown wouldn't have been directly after protests began - quite the opposite. /6

The trajectory of events over the next few days, weeks or even months are what will determine the junta's response, as well as other factors like elite cohesion within their own ranks. It's not unusual at all that they haven't immediately acted to put down the protests. /End

P.S. On a side note, I find the editor's choice of headline a bit distasteful and disrespectful to the people of Myanmar currently risking everything for democracy. Just a personal feeling.