...In the past month, the number of weekly COVID-19 cases in Canada has declined as provinces adopted stronger restrictions.
These case count improvements, in turn, have just recently allowed some jurisdictions to start to slowly ease restrictions again.
Financial markets continued their strong performance in recent weeks, with equity indices reaching record highs across the world.
The Canadian price of oil has enjoyed a robust recovery thus far in 2021 and at US$47 a barrel, is now well above its pre-pandemic level.
The transportation and mobility were flat over the past month. Personal mobility continues to be significantly depressed as restrictions continue in most parts of the country. Flights are moving sideways and freight traffic remains in mild positive year-on-year growth territory.
Business and consumer sentiment continued to hold steady or improve, likely fueled by positive vaccine developments, suggesting the pandemic will eventually be brought under control.
Spending and employment remain relatively stable.
After an impressive recovery, online job postings experienced a slight setback in recent weeks.
Recently hours worked have recovered close to pre-pandemic levels, while spending is slightly below year-ago levels.
Our survey corroborates other indicators for May, which suggest the Canadian economy has turned the corner—tentatively emerging from the worst of the global pandemic, and taking the first steps on road to recovery.
...Business re-openings are slowly proceeding, in a tentative phased-in approach (although many are still operating well below capacity).
Of the 54% of respondents who had closed their physical store locations:
I've heard this refrain a lot in the lat few weeks.
It's too hard to forecast right now, so we won't attempt to do so.
What do you think?
...As someone who has spent many years forecasting, this reaction strikes me as incredible --- especially among forecasters.
Of course any point forecast will be wrong, it was also so.
...But one key point of a forecast --- is *the exercise* of doing the forecast.
It forces you to sit down, as a collective team, reflect, educate yourself on recent developments and importantly use data, analysis and modelling to quantify a complicated and uncertain world.
New report on Canada’s Energy Future: Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 — the first long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (replacing the National Energy Board) cer-rec.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/ftr… #CdnEcon
Key Findings of this report:
1. Energy use grows slowly in the next 20 years.
Energy use per person is expected to decline by 16% by 2040, while energy use per dollar of GDP is expected to decline by 29%. #CdnEcon
2. The mix of energy sources that Canadians use will continue to change over time:
I'm seeing lots of very proud & excited people finishing their PhDs this month, which is awesome!
It's now been 10 years since I graduated.
People occasionally ask for advice on doing a PhD - basically is it all worth it?
Obviously it depends on lots of factors...
.It's fair to say that it was really hard. It felt like running a marathon. Lots of ups and down.
I spent some days doing math like this, or writing code. It was a slow and deliberate process. Occasional flashes of deep insights, and other times asking "why am I doing this?"
...If you're not seeking to publish in top journals and getting a tenure track job, you're often treating like a second class citizen.
But even if that's not your goal, the exercise of working in depth on a narrow topic over several years helps to refine your thinking/approach.