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21 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Some shifts in Scott County from 2016 to 2020:

Shakopee: Trump+2.8 to Biden +8.5
Savage: Trump+0.1 to Biden +9.0
Prior Lake: Trump +16.3 to Trump+6.0
Elko New Market: Trump+37.3 to Trump+30.0
Jackson Twp: Trump+15.0 to Trump+3.4
Jordan: Trump+27.7 to Trump+17.4
The rightward swings in the County were pretty minimal and were in places with few votes:

Blakeley Twp (309 votes): Trump+48.6 to Trump+50.5
St Lawrence Twp (342 votes): Trump+46.8 to Trump+47.7
New Prague (The Scott County part only) (2,732 votes): Trump+22.7 to Trump +22.7
On the other end, the cities that shifted to Biden are considerably larger including:

Shakopee: 22,409
Savage: 19,383
Prior Lake: 17,316
Elko New Market: 2,765
Jackson Twp: 678
Jordan: 3,496

Hence the GOP's math problem in the metro (which extrapolates to a statewide issue)
Trends don't have to be permanent, but 2022 and 2024 will be big tests for the GOP if they can find a way to stop losing ground in cities that cast over 10,000 votes again.

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
Guessing we will have a better guess in the next couple days when we learn if Sanders is a yes. If he is a no, she likely is at least 2 votes short on the floor and likely gets an unfavorable recommendation from his committee.
People on here are focusing on Manchin because that’s what’s “cool” on hard-left Twitter, but they are ignoring Sanders who was not exactly seeming like a yes during committee and his no vote would mean Manchin wouldn’t even wind up voting on the floor anyhow on the nom.
Pretty textbook putting the cart before the horse here.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
Let’s say it is August/September and the Legislature starts its inevitable special session to redistrict. Considering both parties could have a lot to lose here, might there be an incentive to compromise on a reasonable 4-3 Biden map that protects most incumbents? 🤷🏼‍♂️
The 1932 process involved each party holding a statewide primary to endorse the number of candidates for the number of seats. Involving 9 Dems, 9 R’s 9 FL’ers and 3 Communists. In the general, voters got 9 votes (one for each district) and the top 9 got seats.
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
#SD20 just south of the TC is a good example of a district anchored by a very blue city, but contain enough rural/exurban votes to cancel it out. The GLC candidate pulling nearly 6 points helped balloon the margin to 14.5 points. A moot point as he probably wins by 10 anyhow. ImageImageImageImage
When I say a blue city, I mean a very blue city that backed Biden by 47 points. (Note though that the Dakota County precinct of the city is not in SD20. That Dakota county precinct, however is a few points to the right of the Rice County portion) Image
Biden didn't perform particularly well district-wide as he only ran a little over 2 points better than Clinton. ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
21 Feb
As was the cast with the rest of the metro, Scott County shifted well to the left in 2020. Biden ran 8.6 points ahead of Clinton's 2016 loss to Trump in the county. Still a red county, but the DFL stopped the streak of 3 straight cycles where the county shifted right.
The shift wasn't exactly unexpected. The DFL has made gains where the population has grown. In addition, Biden's 2020 performance among white Catholics helped here.
Smith ran a couple points behind her 2018 margin, but still improved vs her statewide performance. Klobuchar is a good demonstration of what the DFL needs to do in the long run to flip the county: win Prior Lake.
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
21 Feb
If I was the GOP & wanted to end a losing streak that dates back to the Bush administration:

1. Focus on the AG race & finding a non-Wardlow candidate
2. Try to find a way to stop the bleeding in the T.C. + Rochester & make appeal to the not socially conservative electorate
Maybe Stauber really wants out of Congress and the pot parties can lower the % needed to win down under 46% for the GOP, but his candidacy doesn't really address the GOP's struggles in MN for statewide races.
The closest stand in for the metro would be Duluth. While he outran Trump by 12 points there, in 2020 he only outran Trump's 2016 margin there by 2 points and in 2018 outran Johnson there by ~5.5 points. He also had problems in 2020 vs Trump in Brainerd & Morrison County.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
20 Feb
Biden made some sizeable gains in this Romney/Trump/Biden district. Stillwater shifted from Clinton +11.3 to Biden +18.3 and Lake Elmo flipped from Trump +4.8 to Biden +4.4. ImageImageImage
The GOP managed to hold the district in 2020, though it was much closer than 2016. 2012 featured a one-term DFL incumbent. 2020 was the first time Housley lost her home precinct. It was Housley +5.6 in 2012, Housley +11.9 in 2016 and Hill +5.4 in 2020. ImageImageImage
The DFL managed to hold on to #HD39B that they flipped in 2018 though it was again very close. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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