Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW with @ChrisGiles_:

UK vaccine effect is now clear in data on hospital admissions & deaths, but harder to see in cases

Some have seen this as a worrying sign, but I’m here to tell you it’s the opposite: a sign of how effective UK lockdown has been

ft.com/content/6d4ff1…

Israel’s vaccine effect is as clear as it is because cases and hospital admissions among younger, un-vaccinated groups kept rising there despite restrictions, or fell more stubbornly.

Low adherence to Israel’s current restrictions has been well-documented.

Overall, cases in the UK have actually fallen further and faster than in Israel despite that elusive vaccine effect being less clear over here.

So what’s going on?

The same is true when we look at cases among vaccinated groups in each country.

Cases among people aged 80+ in the UK (first to be vaccinated) have fallen faster than those among 60+ in Israel (first to be vaccinated).

And the same is true if we look at the 60+ in both countries.

Long story short: cases, hospitalisations and deaths are falling very fast among vaccinated groups in the UK, it’s just that the success of lockdown means there’s less difference vs the younger, unvaccinated groups.

This is similar to what’s happened in vaccine trials, where efficacy has sometimes *appeared* lower or less conclusive because too few people were infected in *either* vaccine or placebo.

Same is true in real-world UK data: steep downward trends in both, not just the vaccinated.

Obviously none of this is to say lockdown should go on longer than necessary.

Mobility data suggests UK will suffer a hit to GDP in Q1 2021, and that means real impacts to jobs, earnings & livelihoods.

But the UK’s winter restrictions have been a big success on the global scale

And ironically, the relaxation of restrictions may be what starts to make the vaccine effect clearer.

Fully story: ft.com/content/6d4ff1…