Usual Sun/Mondata lag ⚠️

🦠🦠 9834 new cases

⚰️⚰️ 215 (28 day cut off) deaths
⚰️⚰️⚰️ 260 (60 day cut off deaths with Covid on death cert)

⚰️💔⚰️💔 139,905 Covid deaths total (by date of death)

(133,077 ONS/Stats Covid death cert to 5/2/21 + 6828 - 28 day cut off to 20/2/21)
🏥 admissions 1397
🛌 In Patients 18,462

Downward trend continues and vaccination effect now visible differentially in the over 80s in both admissions and deaths (- BUT not cases. Will 2 doses reduce transmission more than one dose?)
💉 334,697 VACCINATION doses administered yesterday bringing the total to

💉💉 18,197,269 doses administered to 17,582,121 people

💉💉💉 Of those, 615,148 people have received 2 doses

SOBERING THOUGHT @lewis_goodall

At the end of July 2020 SAGE’S Reasonable Worst Case Scenario = 85k deaths to the nearest thousand between 1/7/20 (56,061) - 31/3/2021. That would be 141k deaths total

We are currently short of that by 1,100 deaths and we are still in Feb
Highly like to breach that mark by the end of Feb a month early, when death notifications are in, despite two lockdowns, endless tiers and 11 weeks of vaccination programmes.

(I have used deaths by date of deaths as the most accurate measure of deaths in a specified timescale )
I’m not seeing a continuing exponential fall in positive cases and will keep wondering to what extent the steep falls we saw mid Jan were due to a change in testing, moving away from PCR towards LFT, which produces higher false negatives.

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More from @fascinatorfun

23 Feb
500,000 coronavirus deaths visualized: A number almost too large to grasp - Washington Post

Is this why we seem to have become numb to the numbers of dead?

We can’t visualise it?

The Washington post looked at how long a queue of buses would be.…
The EQUIVALENT of 94.7 miles.

In the U.K. our Covid dead would stretch for over 22.5 miles. A foot for every person who has died. ImageImage
Just allowing one foot for every person dead with Covid would cause a queue of coaches from Dover to Ashford.

Indeed it would wipe out the population of Dover 3.5 times over Image
Read 8 tweets
22 Feb
Pathway out of lockdown paved with

-Lots of dates;

- no data; and

- a large helping of fudge
Bear in mind we are just 1.1k deaths off SAGE’s RWC scenario from last July (85k deaths 1/7/20-31/3/21). We’ll get there early.

Then have a look at the SAGE report and underlying assumptions from 7th February. All 4 scenarios lead to significant increase in hospital/deaths
Looks like the Gov is aiming for 55k more deaths scenario.

(33k - 81k deaths range)… Image
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
Quick summary today : Sun/Mon data and processing lags ⚠️

🦠🦠 10,641 new cases. Seems to be stalling a bit & at too high a level

⚰️⚰️ 178 (28 day cut off) deaths

🏥 admissions 1304, 🛌 In patients 18,462

VENTILATION 🛌 2469 ImageImage
The first Vaccination Surveillance Programme report has been released today showing decent efficacy even on one dose of Pfizer where odds improved over a 4 week period and then seemed to plateau until second dose.…
Read 9 tweets
21 Feb
Joel Kaplan’s Policy Team Sways Big Facebook Decisions Like Alex Jones Ban

“Internal documents & interviews with 14 current and former employees show how the company’s policy team — guided by Joel Kaplan, the vice president of global public policy”...…
“And Zuckerberg’s whims exerted outsize influence while obstructing content moderation decisions, stymieing product rollouts, and intervening on behalf of popular conservative figures who have violated Facebook’s rules.”...
“In December, a former core data scientist wrote a memo titled, “Political Influences on Content Policy.” Seen by BuzzFeed News, the memo stated that Kaplan’s policy team “regularly protects powerful constituencies” and listed several examples,...”
Read 8 tweets
21 Feb
Important and balanced thread on Long Covid and kids.

And remember the primary rules of public health
1/ Act early (well, that ship sailed)
2/ Act fast (that ship has sailed too)
3/ Act decisively (yep- that ship sailed too)
4/ If in doubt apply the precautionary principle. (Um)
Also adding to @chrischirp valuable thread is a contribution via Israel suggesting we should not ignore the effect on kids.
Also another reflection on the value of vaccination.

Israel has started vaccinating 16-18 year olds with quite dramatic effect including before the second Pfizer jab + 19-21 year olds (army service?)

It looks as if it may well knock back transmission to age groups either side
Read 5 tweets
21 Feb
(Frost)”became a figure familiar in many workplaces: the frustrated middle manager, whose resentment at an indifferent world that overlooks him gnaws at his pride. Do not underestimate the anger of the men no one remembers.”

John Kerr, a former head of the diplomatic service, described his former staffer as being “very diligent and conscientious, good at carrying out instructions, not always as good at querying instructions”. Kerr didn’t mean it as a compliment.

Damning with faint praise.
Off he went to offer a bit of boosterism to the Scotch Whiskey Industry.

I wonder what they think of him now?

His notable absence of commitment to a Brexit prior to the referendum made him an excellent fit for Johnson. For both Brexit was a career move.
Read 5 tweets

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