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22 Feb, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Earth 2038:

1. a massive decline in the viability of food crops critical for human survival

2. regions becoming uninhabitable due to unsurvivable humid heat waves

3. cities & island nations wrecked by sea level rise, subsidence, and megastorms

Is this likely?

[THREAD] ⬇️
This is a world of +2°C global warming.

New climate models suggest +2°C will likely occur by 2029 - 2047 using a 1750 baseline (or 2034 - 2052 using a 19th century baseline as explained here: carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…).

The IPCC says agriculture will be at high risk at 2°C.
At 2C parts of SW Asia including well-populated regions of the Persian Gulf& Yemen 'may become literally uninhabitable without permanent air conditioning

Some researchers predict a massive decline in the viability of food crops critical for human survival'e360.yale.edu/features/what_…
Pacific island nations including Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Timor Leste & Tonga demand major emitters around the world do something.

Their lands could become uninhabitable 'as early as 2030.'

sciencealert.com/pacific-island…
Bangkok 40% submerged by the 2030s? aljazeera.com/news/2019/9/6/…
See threads here:

Hurricanes: Category 6 and Category 7

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
23 Feb
Southeast Asia's Rainforests will suffer from a totally new climate of unprecedented heat from 2027 onwards with staggering consequences for all life on Earth. Image
This study projects years of 'climate departure' (today's high emissions path).

Southeast Asia:
Manokwari, Indonesia 2020
Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei 2027
Singapore 2028
Jakarta, Indonesia & Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 2029
Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea 2033

nature.com/articles/natur… Image
Southeast Asia:

-among the world’s major deforestation hotspots (bulk of deforestation in tropical humid & low-land forests)

-habitat destruction among highest & most severe in terms of biodiversity loss

-deforestation rate comparable to C. & S. America
nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 13 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
21 Feb
'Emergency System Change NOW.'

Why?

1. Land degradation will hit 79% by 2025
2. Antarctica risks collapse from 2030
3. Arctic sea ice will go by 2035
4. Coral reefs dead by 2040
5. Rainforests dying by 2045
6. 50% species will risk extinction: 2050

Give us screaming headlines.
People in the Global South are dying now.

We need a new economy for ecological/climate justice.

* urbanization and industrial for-profit agriculture are killing the ecosystems needed for survival

* terrifying 2°C of global warming by 2038-2043 is likely
More than three quarters of the Earth’s land areas 'have lost some or most of their functions, undermining the well-being of the 3.2 billion people that rely on them to produce food crops, provide clean water, control flooding and more.'vice.com/en/article/ne9…
Read 10 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
18 Feb
Abrupt climate change and ecosystem collapse will be so severe by 2043 (give or take nine years) that it will be difficult for humans to live.

[THREAD]
2°C of global warming 'will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052' making it "hard for everyone to live" as an 'abrupt collapse' of tropical ocean ecosystems & forests (by 2030/2050) occurs.

1.washingtonpost.com/climate-soluti…

2.carbonbrief.org/deep-emissions…

3.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
'Global warming is about to tear big holes into Earth’s delicate web of life..

At the current rate of warming, abrupt exposure events in tropical oceans will begin before 2030 and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050.'
insideclimatenews.org/news/08042020/…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
17 Feb
Warming

* Ecosystems severely damaged at +1C
* Abrupt extinction events from +1.25C
* Planet's liveability at risk by +1.5C
* Global crop failure fears +1.75C
* Impacts we can't adapt to +2C
* Hothouse Earth zone? +2.25C
* Survival is hard before +2.5C

+2.5C likely by 2050-2075
Ocean extinctions:

'The first completely global bleaching event was in 1998. That was a wake-up call for people here in Australia, because that was the first time ever that the Great Barrier Reef had bleached.'

99% of tropical corals will be doomed at 2C.e360.yale.edu/features/insid…
Many already endangered species are now at risk of suddenly becoming extinct as extreme events worsen.
theconversation.com/australias-bus…
Read 13 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
15 Feb
Why omit that Bill Gates' Microsoft and mentor Warren Buffett continue to support and massively invest in new fossil fuel production projects?

Why not explain how emissions-slashing net-zero 2030 is less of a fairytale than carbon-sucking net-zero 2050?dumptheguardian.com/technology/202…
Warren Buffett Is One of the World's Richest Fossil-Fuel Billionaires.

bloomberg.com/features/2020-…

Ten billion dollar investment in 2020:
latimes.com/environment/ne…
'the firm Gates founded is two years into a seven-year deal—rumored to be worth over a billion dollars—to help Chevron, one of the world’s largest oil companies, better extract and distribute oil.'

gizmodo.com/how-google-mic…
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
15 Feb
I made a thread of unarguable sources because I just feel we all have the right to know the combined impacts of ecological collapse and climate change during capitalism will likely become so severe by 2043 (give or take nine years) that it will be 'hard for everyone to live'

1/
We need emergency system change now:

Richard Alley, geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University and contributor to multiple IPCC reports:

at 2°C “you are having impacts on most people, impacts on the market, that make it hard for everyone to live.”

2/
 washingtonpost.com/climate-soluti…
We need emergency system change now.

2°C: 'will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.'

(scenario of modest mitigation: 2C threshold could be exceeded as early as 2038; median 2052)

3/carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Read 4 tweets

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