Ben See Profile picture
18 Feb, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Abrupt climate change and ecosystem collapse will be so severe by 2043 (give or take nine years) that it will be difficult for humans to live.

[THREAD]
2°C of global warming 'will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052' making it "hard for everyone to live" as an 'abrupt collapse' of tropical ocean ecosystems & forests (by 2030/2050) occurs.

1.washingtonpost.com/climate-soluti…

2.carbonbrief.org/deep-emissions…

3.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
'Global warming is about to tear big holes into Earth’s delicate web of life..

At the current rate of warming, abrupt exposure events in tropical oceans will begin before 2030 and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050.'
insideclimatenews.org/news/08042020/…
We need emergency system change now:

Richard Alley, geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University and contributor to multiple IPCC reports:

at 2°C “you are having impacts on most people, impacts on the market, that make it hard for everyone to live.”
washingtonpost.com/climate-soluti…
We need emergency system change now.

2°C: 'will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.'

(scenario of modest mitigation: 2C threshold could be exceeded as early as 2038; median 2052)carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…

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More from @ClimateBen

17 Feb
Warming

* Ecosystems severely damaged at +1C
* Abrupt extinction events from +1.25C
* Planet's liveability at risk by +1.5C
* Global crop failure fears +1.75C
* Impacts we can't adapt to +2C
* Hothouse Earth zone? +2.25C
* Survival is hard before +2.5C

+2.5C likely by 2050-2075
Ocean extinctions:

'The first completely global bleaching event was in 1998. That was a wake-up call for people here in Australia, because that was the first time ever that the Great Barrier Reef had bleached.'

99% of tropical corals will be doomed at 2C.e360.yale.edu/features/insid…
Many already endangered species are now at risk of suddenly becoming extinct as extreme events worsen.
theconversation.com/australias-bus…
Read 13 tweets
15 Feb
Why omit that Bill Gates' Microsoft and mentor Warren Buffett continue to support and massively invest in new fossil fuel production projects?

Why not explain how emissions-slashing net-zero 2030 is less of a fairytale than carbon-sucking net-zero 2050?dumptheguardian.com/technology/202…
Warren Buffett Is One of the World's Richest Fossil-Fuel Billionaires.

bloomberg.com/features/2020-…

Ten billion dollar investment in 2020:
latimes.com/environment/ne…
'the firm Gates founded is two years into a seven-year deal—rumored to be worth over a billion dollars—to help Chevron, one of the world’s largest oil companies, better extract and distribute oil.'

gizmodo.com/how-google-mic…
Read 6 tweets
15 Feb
I made a thread of unarguable sources because I just feel we all have the right to know the combined impacts of ecological collapse and climate change during capitalism will likely become so severe by 2043 (give or take nine years) that it will be 'hard for everyone to live'

1/
We need emergency system change now:

Richard Alley, geoscientist at Pennsylvania State University and contributor to multiple IPCC reports:

at 2°C “you are having impacts on most people, impacts on the market, that make it hard for everyone to live.”

2/
washingtonpost.com/climate-soluti…
We need emergency system change now.

2°C: 'will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.'

(scenario of modest mitigation: 2C threshold could be exceeded as early as 2038; median 2052)

3/carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
Scientsts: global warming of 3.2C is

* hard to survive
* hard to prevent
* likely by 2090
* possible by 2070
* plausible by 2050
* just one of many existential threats that mean a rethink of economic growth is now essential for survival

Journalists:

Economists:

Politicians:
'for the majority of animals and plants, 3.2°C of warming would mean having most of their habitat wiped out entirely' qz.com/1280872/keepin…
The IPCC & IPBES say we need total economic transformation.

Even ecomodernist scientists who downplay feedbacks and only want policy changes admit 'the world is on course for around 3°C of warming...by the end of the century— still a catastrophic outcome'.nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 9 tweets
10 Feb
You're in a room full of climate scientists. You ask how many think we'll exceed 2C of global warming within decades. You ask if it's possible the carbon 'budget' for 2C has already nearly been used up. You ask whether humans can adapt to all the impacts of well over 2C..

THREAD
1a/

Most scientists expect 2.5 to 6C of warming within decades. These are truly horrific levels of warming happening with virtually unprecedented speed in the history of animal life on Earth.

Guardian policy? Ignore this reality virtually everyday.

2009:web.archive.org/web/2021020418…
1b/

New computer climate models suggest profoundly destructive 2C by around 2043 (give or take 9 years).

These models can't yet factor in all dangerous feedbacks properly so with emissions still rising we can't be sure 2C won't hit as early as 2029-2033.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
Read 10 tweets
7 Feb
Arctic sea ice reflects the sun’s rays. As ice cover decreases, more of the sun’s rays are absorbed by the ocean, leading to further warming.

Summer sea ice will begin to totally disappear by 2035 (give or take 14 years), with catastrophic consequences in the Arctic, and beyond.
Scientists agree that impacts in the Arctic itself will be disastrous for people and wildlife.

I feel the word 'catastrophe' is correct for global impacts whether ice loss exacerbates already catastrophic warming and/or extreme weather a little or a lot.

"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic". ⚠️

+4 million people who inhabit the Arctic including 10% who are Indigenous are threatened.

commondreams.org/news/2019/04/0…
Read 7 tweets

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