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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
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23 Feb, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Despite breathless climate reporting, deaths from malaria, heat, diarrhea, malnutrition and dengue *lower* by 2050, according to WHO

Here dengue; climate will delay progress slightly, from 2049 to 2050

ihmeuw.org/5dx9, who.int/healthinfo/glo…, apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
It is the same with heat deaths: by 2050 they will still be much lower than current cold deaths

As we saw with malnutrition, climate will not make deaths go up, but slow progress slightly
And with malaria,
And diarrhea,
This comes from the conversation around "climate is most important health problem"

No, it is not

Many people answered 'but heat death', 'but malaria', 'but diarrhea', 'but malnutrition', or 'but dengue' and above is the answer
Climate scares based on breathless climate reporting can lead to bad decisions

Climate change a real problem, but we must be careful not — in panic — spending so many resources, the cure is costlier than the affliction

Read my free peer-reviewed article: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Scared witless has real impacts

Half the world now believe climate change will make humanity go extinct

Reality? UN expects average person in 2100 to be 450% richer. Climate will make that 434%. Problem, not end-of-world

My new book (free first 25p): ow.ly/HUkU50A9v1o

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More from @BjornLomborg

Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
14 Feb
Climate slightly slows progress (problem, not end-of-world)

Technology and higher incomes make us much more resilient, compared to climate problems

Here is one of world's leading child killers, malnutrition

According to WHO, mortality keeps declining, even in a warming world
Malnutrition was the risk-factor behind 7m deaths in 1990

Today, around 2.78m

by 2050, 554K

WHO estimates global warming will cause an extra 85K, equivalent to delaying progress by less than 3 years

ihmeuw.org/5dmb, apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
We see the same trend with malaria

Although global warming will make malaria worse, it is overwhelmingly improved by technology and resilience
Read 7 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
11 Feb
Climate slightly slows progress (not end-of-world)

Technology and higher incomes make us more resilient

Climate doesn't reverse that positive trend, despite what you hear

Here is one of world's leading child killers, diarrhea

Mortality keeps declining, even in a warming world
Diarrhea is one of the world's leading child killers
Used to kill 4+ million a year
Now 550K
2050 286K

WHO estimates that climate means 33k more deaths, postponing progress about 2 years in 2050

ihmeuw.org/5d7x apps.who.int/iris/handle/10…
We see the same trend with malaria

Although global warming will make malaria worse, it is overwhelmingly improved by technology and resilience

Read 6 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
10 Feb
Lots of media claiming a new Lancet study shows stronger climate ambitions can save upwards of 10 million lives annually

Not surprisingly, that's not what the study actually documents

Thread

Study: thelancet.com/journals/lanpl…

indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Study shows eating healthier can save 6.5m lives/year

Yes, *very* healthy to eat more fruits+vegetables, less red meat and reduce obesity

But apart from red meat, this is health policy, not climate policy

And unrealistically assumes 86-92% red meat reduction and 50% go vegan
Air pollution is bad, and cutting it could save 1.6m/yr

For ~$150bn/yr much cleaner air in China through air pollution control. Good deal

But again, doing this with climate policy, much costlier (China ~$1 trillion/yr)
Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
7 Feb
Technology and higher incomes make us more resilient

Climate can make problems harder

Yet, tech & wealth typically outweigh climate

Meaning climate slightly *delay world getting better*

Climate is a problem, not end-of-world

Here malaria in warming world
refs below
Data 1900-1997, ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…; 2000-19 who.int/publications/i…; 2020-60: WHO projections who.int/healthinfo/glo…
WHO extra estimate extra deaths from climate in 2030 and 2050 apps.who.int/iris/handle/10… Image
This comes from the conversation around "climate is most important health problem"

No, it is not

Many people answered 'but malaria', and above is the answer

Read 5 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
5 Feb
Still silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of Americans

Heat kills 0.31% and ↘️
Cold 6.4% and ↗️
Extreme weather: 0.015%

Yes, problem
No, 0.325% not biggest challenge
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 6 tweets
Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
28 Jan
Silly: "Climate change most significant public health issue of our time" Biden's Climate Advisor McCarthy

Heart disease kills 33% and cancer 26% of all Americans

Heat kills 0.3% and declining. Cold 6.4% and increasing

Yes, problem. No, 0.3% not biggest challenge

refs below
Moreover, most heat deaths are rather easy to tackle (which is why they are declining), bc only affect people for a few days

Cold deaths much worse, because they require months of good heating (why they increase)

Unfortunately newest data to 2006 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Heat deaths have declined precipitously in the US since 1960s, much of it because of widespread availability of air conditioning

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33003149/
Read 7 tweets

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