Thread by @Damian_Roland

Now good evidence to back up the worldwide reports of out-of-season surges of bronchiolitis.

This should cause significant reflection in the UK paediatric community as rapid service response may be needed at a time when staff in a traditional summer 'down time'

/thread

In November 2020 the Western Australian surveillance programme demonstrated a rapid rise in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases.

RSV causes bronchiolitis, a common respiratory infection, in children less than one year old.

https://twitter.com/damian_roland/status/1335942123934380032?lang=en

This was interesting as case numbers were not only occurring in the summer (unusual as it is normally a winter illness) but also at a much greater frequency (up to double normal seasonal levels)

The reasons for this aren't clear but was thought to be a rebound effect of lockdown

This data has been published in a peer-reviewed journal

The authors highlight "the eventual reduction of #COVID19 public health measures may herald a significant rise in RSV & overburden already strained healthcare systems"

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…

By no means certain this will occur in the northern hemisphere especially as lockdown occurred in a very different fashion, especially in Europe, than in Australia.

However modelling does support rebound phenomena
(A-6 & B-12 month controls)

pnas.org/content/117/48…

Rates of RSV in the UK and the US have plummeted in 2020/21 to almost non-existent levels (interesting to note another respiratory virus common in children, rhinovirus, not as impacted by public health measures)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… (UK)

cdc.gov/surveillance/n… (US)

What will happen over the next 6 months isn't clear but just hoping for the best probably as insensible as hysteria about this.

A group of us are working on developing a rapid Emergency Department surveillance system

Thanks @Williams_T_C for highlighting some of this data