1/ Quick story of good luck.

Twenty-three years ago I interviewed for an internship at Merrill Lynch (near the world trade center)

I was the last or next to last of 20 candidates to interview.

The decision-maker called me the next day. I panicked assuming I didn't get it...
2/ He said:

Listen. I'm going to be honest.
You were not the smartest candidate
Nor were you the most experienced
I'm not sure you'll even do the best job

BUT I can't sit on the trading desk all summer next to that last nerd who was smartest. And you seem normal....
3/ He continued: don't make me regret it or make me look bad.

So he gave me the shot.

That shot gave me confidence and credibity to parlay to my next job. VERY grateful Joe Shatz for that lucky break...

And the lesson that it isn't always a fair meritocracy...
4/ We published this together which was pretty cutting edge before the Euro started trading...

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More from @wolfejosh

19 Feb
1/ The compounded human INGENUITY that went into this (can't wait to see real high def footage beamed thru satellite relays)...
2/ The brains (chips), cameras (eyes), arms (robotics), heartbeat (power and batteries) is INSANE
3/ Full 3D spec explorer mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/space…
Read 5 tweets
18 Feb
1/ Current letter to Lux LPs...

Lessons Learned.
Stability + Surprise.
2/ ...Passionate intensities.
...The directional arrow of progress.

What is abundantly acknowledged?
What is scarce + surprising?
3/
An era can be said to end...
when its basic illusions are exhausted.

The natural corrective to bad ideas...is criticism.

Hate + heat follow heretics. Heretics often follow...truth.
Read 7 tweets
17 Feb
1/ Personal note:

I am generally ‘center left’
i believe in liberal democracy + free market capitalism

our current political moment is imperfect democracy + oft illiberal

our current market moment is distorted with speculative excess, wittingly corrupt promoters + cronyism...
2/
I believe in reducing human suffering + broadly expanding human rights—which means eliminating + shaming discrimination against skin/hair/eye color, body size/shape, gender, sexual preferences, religious beliefs, food, music, clothing choices.

I also believe in free speech
3/ Believing in free speech means the right to criticize and say things that may offend—and having no right to not be criticized or offended.

I can say something you find insulting
and you can correct my ignorance
and respect my subjectivity...
Read 11 tweets
13 Feb
1/ Likely we test new US political movements
that echo 2008 housing bailout
but for STUDENT LOAN forgiveness

Also played on past stages of
Germany vs Greece
North vs Southern Europe (Italy)

SAVERS vs SPENDTHRIFTS
2/ Obviously it is MORE complicated than profligate spending with other spotlights on inflationary cost of higher ed, driven ever higher by government provision of crazy debt loads, bloated administrative ranks, broken promise that a costly degree was high paying job guarantee...
3/ Excellent @GeorgeWill column in WaPo frames the lines...
washingtonpost.com/opinions/stude…
Read 9 tweets
12 Feb
1/ Here is my full Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_org talk

will post excerpts later—covering:
*future of R&D + innovation
*history of private funding
*China
*Space Race
*Lux theme of “Tech of Science”
*Miami + how to (and how not to) create tech hubs
cfr.org/event/changes-…
2/ On the unintended consequence of shutting China out of markets for geopolitical competitive reasons

which will make them MORE competitive
as distrust does away with comparative advantage
and stimulates redundant competing space, science, tech races
3/ On

-SERENDIPITY in SCIENCE and the futility of government “directing” discoveries...

-scientists reclassifying or renaming whatever they are working on to get government money given to what politicians deem popular...
Read 5 tweets
10 Feb
1/
If you CANNOT say when something is OVERVALUED
you CANNOT say you know how to VALUE it

If you buy $1.00 for cost of $0.50—it’s “riskless profit”
(undervalued arb, sure to gain)

If you buy $1.00 for cost of $2.00—it’s “riskless loss”
(overvalued foolishness, sure to lose)
2/
If you cannot VALUE something you do not know if it is UNDERVALUED or OVERVALUED

and thus cannot know if you are taking riskless profit, riskless loss—or profitless risk

The key current test: at what $ price within a 50% +/- range
would #Bitcoin be OVERVALUED?
3/ “Today a young man on acid realized:
everything should be free
Property rights are zerosum oppression by patriarchy Everything’s relative to something which’s relative to nothing
there’s no absolute value
info wants to be free
money is made-up
...Here’s Bob with the weather”
Read 4 tweets

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