"The reason we’re net zero is that we have this enormous renewables business ... all the avoided emissions that come with that" compensate for emissions in other investments.

Houston, we have a problem... This from climate finance champion Carney.

1/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2. "Most large asset managers have a renewable energy fund. Simply having one does not make you net zero. ... Such commitments are not credible & represent greenwashing" @bencaldecott
3. "It’s virtually impossible for a company to be a net-zero company now" @FarsanAlexander

"It won’t matter how many solar panels one installs if we don’t reduce actual CO₂ emissions." @UlfErlandsson
4. This is perhaps a problem with a company / individual focus for net-zero.

In the short-term, it is virtually impossible to be true net-zero. It is more important that companies have a credible pathway to true net-zero.
5. If a company or individual says to me they are net-zero I know it is complete crap. I wish our climate leaders would say the same. Demonstrate the climate challenge, not the art of the greenwash.
6. Original article by @Jess_Shankleman & @AkshatRathi, but also see @AkshatRathi's earlier article bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

HT @kmac

/end

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More from @Peters_Glen

16 Feb
THREAD: A critical look at baseline scenarios

I did a presentation for the @Tekna group on Energy, Industry, & Environment.

Presentation: slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CIC…

Video: tekna.no/fag-og-nettver…
2. There are a range of scenarios spanning the high-end (>5°C in 2100) to the low-end (<1.5°C in 2100). This shows the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (one of many scenario intercomparisons).

Out of these scenarios, which ones should be used for analysis?

carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-…
3. Baseline scenarios assume no climate policy. Essentially, integrated assessment models (IAMs) apply no carbon price (or emission constraint).

Baseline scenarios range from emissions peaking & declining (<3°C in2100) to a high-end outlier (by choice) RCP8.5 (>5°C in 2100).
Read 25 tweets
15 Feb
IPCC: By 2050 a Brazil-sized area of new forests and/or crops may be needed to meet 1.5°C climate goal…

No, this is not the new Shell scenario, this is the IPCC SR15 Summary for Policy Makers. These are scenarios with no or limited overshoot...

ipcc.ch/sr15/

1/
Shell requires some “700m hectares of land would be required over the century, an area approaching that of Brazil”.

[Why Brazil, that is 850Mha, Australia 770Mha?]

This is a similar area to the favoured “Low Energy Demand” (LED) scenario.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell…
2/
Ok, people like spruiking the Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario. I am fine with that.

Despite the title, LED uses just as much land for forests as Shell.

It is a case of low energy demand AND carbon dioxide removal (not either/or). Do people get this?

nature.com/articles/s4156…
3/
Read 10 tweets
13 Feb
Fossil CO₂ emissions are likely to remain flat through 2100 leading to ~2.8°C warming if countries continue historical CO₂/GDP trends.

If countries meet emission pledges & continue reductions, then ~2.3°C.

Not RCP8.5, nor RCP1.9 or RCP2.6...

nature.com/articles/s4324…
Though, note that these sorts of methods are very sensitive to assumptions (played with this before).

They had a similar study a few years back, some thoughts here
medium.com/@Peters_Glen/w…

And here is how the method performed...
Here is a Kaya based projection we did 7 years ago. If a country continues along historical trends, the method is ok. If the country changes trends, the method is useless. See China. We were way out.

Though, for the EU, we will much better than the other study..
Read 5 tweets
12 Feb
"If you gave the average CEO a multiple-choice question whether the Paris Agreement goal is 2°C or 1.5°C, I wonder what they would write"

Let's see... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
According to @CFigueres chatting to @MLiebreich

The hard target in the Paris Agreement is “well below 2°C” (you have to do this). The soft target is 1.5°C (the aspiration, we would like to do this).

Listen to the whole Episode 6 liebreich.com/cleaning-up/
The Paris Agreement asked IPCC do to a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C. This was done in the Paris Agreement "decision" text. This was why there was a 1.5°C report (interestingly not a "well below 2°C" report)

unfccc.int/process-and-me…
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
1. “one of the most important sentences of the last few centuries”…

Did the IPCC SR15 change the debate, the IPCC just in the right place at the right time, or are some people just slow to get it?

Seriously...

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2. Why not put praise on the earlier Paris Agreement, which has a legal form & is the text countries agree to adhere too?

🤔 Perhaps many just do not know about the Paris Agreement (or was it Accord?), or confuse IPCC SR15 and Paris?
3. Scientists have been on net-zero for years. So have policy makers. The Paris Agreement did not happen in a vacuum, nor IPCC SR15, it built on the work over years, even decades.

IPCC SR15 is an assessment of the literature, not new science. Or is it?
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
THREAD: Does rounding change 1.5°C carbon budgets?

Short answer: Yes

If the temperature is rounded 0.05°C, then the carbon budget changes 100GtCO₂ (~25% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C)…

That is the tweet, now for the explanation…

1/
2. Global average temperature has a near linear relationship with cumulative CO₂ emissions, with a correction for non-CO₂ emissions.

This means we need net-zero CO₂ emissions.

It is also great for back-of-the-envelope calculations…

cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
3. Equations:

T = α ×ΣCO2+ T(non-CO₂)

α is the Transient Climate Response to CO₂ Emissions (TCRE)

Assume a small change, so that T(non-CO₂) is ~constant

ΔT = α×Δ(ΣCO2)

(here is some explanation, sorry for different notation)
rdcu.be/cdO5Q Image
Read 11 tweets

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