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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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26 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Not even a competition. Get a grip, folks.
Again, Joe Manchin’s value over replacement is insane. Look at the gap between him and Capito in terms of voting with Democrats and realize that without Manchin, we’re praying Biden can just confirm a cabinet.
Sinema is a bit more annoying for me, but she was elected when AZ was flipping from red to blue and had to appeal to a whole ton of folks across the partisan spectrum. And she hasn’t actually broken with Democrats on any vote of consequence.
Hawley and Cruz literally incited an insurrection. This isn’t close. Get a fucking grip with the discourse.

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
22 Feb
So, do people think a lack of canvassing only means a turnout differential?

A lack of voter outreach also means folks can switch their vote too, because they just don’t see one side at all.
I said that the GOP drew heavily on low propensity voters turning out to boost their votes in the RGV — in essence, giving you some type of “manufactured swings”. But it’s not like that’s independent from a pool of voters switching their vote.
The word here is “key”. No one denies that there was some swing — how else could Biden underrun Clinton’s raw vote total in Starr?

But that swing is also likely connected to a lack of outreach and canvassing that saw the new GOP voters drown out the new Democratic votes.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
21 Feb
Yeah, the "we don't know how well this vaccine works and it probably won't help that much" rhetoric is basically the way you'd kneecap the vaccine rollout by making ordinary people falsely think that the vaccine is not that effective
I don't know why it is, but the minute we deliver good news about the vaccine being really good at blocking transmission (as shown in Israel) or being extraordinarily effective at preventing hospitalization, people jump on it to virtue signal about recklessness.
Like, sorry folks, but given the (rather baseless) skepticism embedded in America about vaccinations, the average person will be paying attention to rhetoric way more, and if you tell them the vaccine won't make much of a difference, why would they take it?
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
18 Feb
Properly messaged, this scandal can seriously do some immense damage to Ted Cruz, even accounting for the fact that his re-election campaign is 3 years out.
Something like this bruises his favorability ratings among low-information voters, and it's generally kept independent of legislation and directly impacts the "trust" factor that is on an individual basis. It's a bit different from a party not delivering on campaign promises.
Photos play really well with the public if properly used and end up hurting the candidate among voters who don't tune into politics much and only know him as the "asshole who went to Cancun".
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
16 Feb
Democrats have nearly hit the floor in Tennessee -- the state's elasticity reflects the lean of many ancestrally D areas staying steady.

But Kentucky may not have finished its GOP slide yet, particularly in the ancestrally Democratic east, and the suburbs aren't moving that much
There's not really too much to save Democrats in Kentucky. Currently, the downballot picture for them is grim -- a strong snap towards the GOP is expected as the presidential results converge with those further down the ballot, while this has already largely happened in TN.
Unfortunately for them, the suburbs haven't moved too much -- you'd want to see a larger swing in Louisville, but that just isn't the case yet. Until that begins accelerating, there's nothing to prevent Democrats sliding further and further down in this state.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
14 Feb
A suspicion I have, based on polling and name ID, is that a lot of the reason the "ancestral Democrats" effect persisted downballot is because most people didn't even know who those candidates are but considered themselves Democrats still when name ID was stripped away.
These folks would say "yeah, the national Democrats definitely don't represent me" etc, and that's because they know who those candidates actually are (based on Fox News etc).

But when you strip away name ID, it's down to party ID, which likely tends to take longer to switch.
@JMilesColeman @gelliottmorris @baseballot @SenhorRaposa does anyone have any data to back this up or contradict it? Would love to see some actual research on it but I haven't seen anything, so this is informed only by polling and name ID.
Read 7 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
11 Feb
no, Marjorie Taylor Greene cheating on her husband with two different people is not a *good* thing, and she should not be immune to criticism for it. she tries to claim a moral high ground on "family values" while pushing awful QAnon conspiracies and railing against LGBTQ folks.
I'm not naive enough to think that even half of Congress is clean with regards to spousal fidelity. They're not, and it's no secret. I didn't think Cunningham's affair, as bad as it was, disqualified him.

I don't judge political fitness on that. A ton of politicians have affairs
But it *does* reflect on you if you center your image around Family Value policies and then try to strip other people of rights by saying they're not following Biblical Values, all while you decide to break someone's trust and cheat on your spouse.
Read 5 tweets

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