Influenza update thread, MMWR Week 7
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 7.
CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Five-year average: 10,930 cases; 25.60% positive
Last year: 15,638; 30.58%
This year: 30; 0.10%
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…
Five-year average: 10,930 cases; 25.60% positive
Last year: 15,638; 30.58%
This year: 30; 0.10%
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (21 weeks, MMWR 40 to 7)
Five-year average: 124,156 cases; 16.45% positive
Last year: 205,675; 21.74%
This year: 1,701; 0.17%
Five-year average: 124,156 cases; 16.45% positive
Last year: 205,675; 21.74%
This year: 1,701; 0.17%
Season-to-date U. S. flu hospitalizations down 98.7% from last year, which was a typical year.
Flu hospitalizations total (21 weeks) in FluSurv-NET catchment is 183. Through week 7 last year (20 weeks) it was 13,775.
Rate last year: 47.4 per 100K
This year: 0.6 per 100K
Flu hospitalizations total (21 weeks) in FluSurv-NET catchment is 183. Through week 7 last year (20 weeks) it was 13,775.
Rate last year: 47.4 per 100K
This year: 0.6 per 100K
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) continues to track well lower than the mild 2015-16 and 2011-12 seasons, and is now declining when it was rising in those years.
Still just one U.S. pediatric flu death this season. (There are 87 pediatric deaths with COVID this season.)
Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Map
Week 7: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
Week 7: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
Latest U.S. non-SARS-CoV2 syndromic data from BioFire. Lots of rhinoviruses. Some adenoviruses, and now HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-NL63 are coming back. Nothing else.
syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/r…
syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/r…
Florida. Schools open all year. No lockdowns since September. Rhinoviruses and some adenoviruses but nearly no flu or RSV.
floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c…
floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-c…
Sweden week 7. No masks, no lockdowns, no school closures -- and still no Flu A, Flu B, or RSV. HCoVs coming back.
karolinska.se/globalassets/g…
karolinska.se/globalassets/g…
But not everywhere.
https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1365034468893810692
I don't think it's masks, which have been shown ineffective for stopping influenza in many, many studies.
Japan masked hard in 2019 and failed to stop a major flu outbreak. But in 2020 flu disappeared with low stringency COVID intervention.
https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1365091758887997440/
The "SARS-CoV2 can still rampage with mitigation that stops lower R viruses" theory is too facile. Rhinoviruses bounced right back despite lower R0 and RSV is gone with comparable R0 to SARS-CoV2. HCoVs were gone until recently.
I tend toward the viral interference theory, explained here well by @m_soond:
medium.com/illumination-c…
medium.com/illumination-c…
Osterholm agrees.
"There is this viral interference... Now, you can't say it's just because of mitigation, because, frankly, we haven't done all that well with mitigation, with COVID-19; look at all the cases we've had."
"There is this viral interference... Now, you can't say it's just because of mitigation, because, frankly, we haven't done all that well with mitigation, with COVID-19; look at all the cases we've had."
Another key part:
"You go look at our hospitalization rates right now for kids, it is dramatically below what we've seen in recent years."
As I've been saying, with COVID replacing flu and RSV, this is literally the safest respiratory season for children ever recorded.
"You go look at our hospitalization rates right now for kids, it is dramatically below what we've seen in recent years."
As I've been saying, with COVID replacing flu and RSV, this is literally the safest respiratory season for children ever recorded.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
