Thread by @BullishAngel

1) 🤢STOCK MARKET CRASH QUESTION:🤢

This will be a multi-post thread here with a question at the end.

Not including the short-lived downturn in Mar, the last 2 crashes we had in the market were in 2000 (dot com) and 2007 (housing/fncl.)

In the image...

(full thread)
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2) ... below, you can see how long it took.

Both of those are on many levels quite different to where we are now, but also in some ways similar (at least the euphoric trading that is happening.)

I'd say 90% of the stocks I see discussed here are growth stocks that ...

3) ... would fall under Nasdaq'ish type companies.

In May 2000, the Nasdaq crashed hard, & took 15 YEARS until it reached its previous all-time highs (AH.) In fact, it was so long, that it skipped right over the 2nd crash, which was the 2008 financial/housing ...

4) crisis. If we look at just that one, it crashed in late 2007, and it took until the start of 2011 before it caught back to the 2007 AH, and another 4 years before it caught back up to the AH of 2000.

The consensus for now that ...

5) ... I see a lot (and I am in this group) is to hold during these dips and even crashes, and if you have great companies, 3 to 5 years from now you'll be great.

But looking at the historical data, tech stocks, when they crash hard, take a very long time ...

6) ...to recover. In 2000, it took forever because companies were soooo over valued.

In the past year, we've seen almost every major tech stock go up at least 100%. And many of them way more than that.

7) First, you have stellar 1 year growth from the giants, FAANG:

$FB 34%
$AMZN 57%
$AAPL 73%
$NFLX 49%
$GOOG 47%

8) And then here's FinTwits favs (and this is with the recent brutal week we've had)

$TSLA 336%
$ROKU 232%
$TDOC 84%
$SE 401%
$FVRR 749%
$SHOP 179%
$ETSY 335%
$RDFN 154%
$PINS 284%
$SQ 195%
$MELI 155%
$PTON 331%
$NIO 944%
$FSLY 259%

I just picked stocks randomly off the ...

9) ...top of my head based on what I see a lot of posts on. Bio stocks have gone up even higher. And penny stocks and the spac market, that's for a different thread.

I haven't seen these kinds of annual gains since 2000...

10) ...And it took 15 years to recover from that. Certainly, nobody wants to wait over a decade to recover.

$PINS just came out with stellar earnings. Are they 335% better than last year?

11) Were all of these stocks way undervalued and now they are priced right? Or has the euphoria and fact that everybody is investing causes valuations to blow up to a point, where a big crash would make it difficult to recover to AH's.

12) So my question to all of you (and you know I'm bullish), is why would an invest-and-hold strategy work today when the big crash comes (and it will at some point) when previously it has taken 15 years to correct? Why is this time different?

13) I'd love it if we can keep this conversation intelligent and focused.

🦸And please tag people you follow that would likely have good insight here.🦸

@JonahLupton @FromValue @saxena_puru @TheMarkCooke @bhtrade @qcapital2020 @GerberKawasaki

@LuoshengPeng @plantmath1 @mukund @studios @MazwoodCap @sandiegosam

What about the extensive use of margin/credit by I think almost everyone due to cheap rates? The risk of a major domino effect. I myself have an 8 figure LOC I can use.

@JonahLupton @FromValue @saxena_puru @TheMarkCooke @bhtrade @qcapital2020 @GerberKawasaki