Thread by @BullishAngel

26/
This is the 2nd THREAD of the $HOL / $ASTR notes and why I invested 💥💥$300K into this Space Tech startup.💥💥

If you missed the first 25 post thread, you can read it here:

https://twitter.com/BullishAngel/status/1358866163174883328?s=20

Continue reading the thread below for posts 26-50: 👇👇👇

27/
This way the customer is not building the satellite from scratch.

C) These satellites will work perfectly with the ASTRA launch vehicles for even more efficiency.

D) This cuts down the idea-to-launch-timeframes by an order of magnitude, & cuts costs down for everybody.

28/
Their executive team appears to be stellar with a ton of experience in this space, including having worked at @SpaceX and @NASA.

It makes sense, considering they are the 3rd private company to ever achieve orbit, and they did it faster than anybody else, ever!

29/
CEO - Chris Kemp: Former CTO of NASA & founded OpenStack.

CTO - Dr. Adam London: 10 years leading #Darpa & #Nasa initiatives. Ph.D. from #MIT in #Aerospace where his research culminated in the creation of the world's smallest liquid-cooled chemical #rocket engine.

30/
Chief Engineer - Chris Thompson: One of the three Co-Founders of #SpaceX, and VP of #SpaceX Structures, where he led the development of the Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Dragon Capsule for the NASA COTS Programs

VP of Manufacturing - Bryson Gentile: Led the manufacturing ...

31/
...engineering team at #SpaceX for the #Falcon9 rocket where he accelerated rocket production, reliability, and reusability.

Executive VP Biz Ops - Martin Attiq: 10 years @BlackRock .

Deep contacts for partnerships & Biz dev

32/ They have their first paid launches this year.

Their launch goals:
2021: 3 launches
2022: Monthly launches
2023: Weekly launches
2025: Daily launches

Estimated revenues:

2021: $4M
2022: $47M
2023: $206M
2024: $619M
2025: $1.1 Billion

33/ Gross Profit Margin of about 20% for 2022, and as efficiency and scale increases, this rises to 70% by 2025.

#ASTRA claims their rockets will achieve higher payload carrying capacity at reduced operational cost as technology improves over the next 5 years.

34/ #ASTRA is a pre-earnings company, but they expect to be profitable by 2024 with an adj. EBITDA of 31% / $238M and 46% / $694M in 2025.

For comparison, it took #Tesla 10 years to achieve their 1st profitable "quarter" & 17 years for a profitable year.

35/
Valuation: After SPAC merger, $2.1B representing 3.1X multiple based on 2025E adj. EBITDA of $694M

Capital Structure: The SPAC will infuse ASTRA with $489M in cash to fund massive growth.

36/ #ASTRA will have a $2.1 Billion valuation. How does that compare?

SpaceX valuation: $46 Billion with 106 successful missions

Relativity valuation: $2.3 Billion with first space mission est late 2021

Rocket Labs valuation: $1.4 Billion with 17 successful missions

37/ 2023 - 2025E Revenue CAGR: 142% !

Hard to make comparisons here since all the popular rocket companies are private.

But we can use public companies that are in or getting into the space game.

Compare Astra's 142% CAGR to ...

38/ ...a 5.3% Median CAGR in Aerospace/Defense w/ companies like Boeing, Airbus, Northrup Grumman, Aerojet Rocketdyne, etc.

SpaceX would be around 48% CAGR since reaching Orbit in 2008, when using the est $46B valuation, so ASTRA expects to 3X this level within 5 years. Sweet.

39/ Heck, #Astra is a #SPAC via $HOL (Holicity), so let's compare it to recent SPACs:
#DraftKings $DKNG / CAGR 29.7% for 2023-2025E.
54% for new SPAC #Chargepoint $CHPT 2023-2025E

As you can see, #Astra is projected to crush those numbers. Good stuff.

40/ I'm loving the 2025E EBITDA: 46% vs. a median of 14% in aerospace (Boeing, Northrop, etc.)

Remember, I invest long term, and this means 3 to 5 years minimum.

I'm buying in now cheap for the benefit of owning a leader in the space sector 5 years from now.

41/ TEV/Rev is 1.4X for 2025E (you want this multiple to be low.)

Compare to 2021E of Aerospace at 1.6X Median.

Compare to 2021E of new SPACS:
#Chargepoint 8.3X, Luminar 15.9X, QuantumScape 12.3X, DraftKings 7.4X

Not even close!

42) It gets better when you look at 2025E TEV/adj. EBITDA:

ASTRA 3.1X

vs.

New SPACS 2025E: #Chargepoint 66.9X, Luminar 50.9X, QuantumScape 49X, DraftKings 48.6X

vs.

2021E Aerospace of 11.1X

43/ Awesome quote #1 - CEO: "We can launch rockets anywhere on earth, and put payloads anywhere into space in a matter of days. This allows #Astra to operate and scale with a level of efficiency never seen in our industry."

44/ Awesome quote #2 - CEO: "#Astra fundamentally is a software co. that is understanding & collecting data about every aspect of our business all the time, & that allows our engineers to focus on improving the efficiency, productivity, & cost structure of our space operations."

45/ Earlier, I mentioned 38K satellites are expected to be launched by 2029. I believe this to be a massive underestimation.

I believe that satellite technology will advance very quickly, just as cloud computing did.

& the size of satellites will start ...

46/ ... getting incredibly small (think the size of your phone in low orbit - hundreds of thousands of them.)

When you go from satellites that are the size of a car, down to the size of a dishwasher in just 10 years, then it's not hard to imagine it going from ...

47/ ...that to the size of a cell phone in another 10 years with the advancement of tech, AI, etc.

When this tech gets cheap enough, we'll likely have hundreds of thousands of satellites in space by the end of this decade, not 38K.

48/ A decade is a long time in tech.

For example, you can have your own private TV channel through ROKU today, which you couldn't do10 years ago.

Just 16 years ago, Youtube didn't exist. Hard to imagine, right?

49/
I imagine within 10 years, most businesses will be able to rent or buy these mini-satellites for their business sector.

Would SaaS have a new meaning (Satellite as a Service)?

Building these new small satellites will be fast & easy...

50/ Getting them to space is the hard part, and that's where #ASTRA comes in.

#Astra plans to start offering complete constellation management services, spaceport services (launch pad), and other turnkey services to their customers. Reminds me of $TSLA with ...

Posts 51 through 60 of my $300k $HOL purchase

Thread continues here.

https://twitter.com/bullishangel/status/1358867095560273924