UPDATE thread on France’s anti-Covid vax programme.
Overall, it’s still frustratingly slow. The AstraZeneca roll-out has been very poor – largely because of rejection of the AZ jab by health workers. BUT that may soon change… 1/10
The government is planning belatedly an “AZ-is-wonderful” P.R. campaign based on Scots findings that the vax is 90% effective and fine for old people. As a result, the Fr. health supervisory board may soon recommend that Fr. lifts its ban on AZ for the over 65’s. 2/10
That would be a game-changer, with 6m AstraZeneca doses due to arrive in France in the coming month and over 9m in April. But Macron and his government must carry a large part of the blame for what they now call primly AZ’s “image deficit” in France. 3/10
It’s taken a long time for the govt to counter exaggerated media reports of AZ side-effects. Macron said, without evidence, that AZ was “quasi-inefficace” for the over 65’s. As a result, only 181, 364 AZ jabs had been given by yesterday – out of 547,000 received in Feb. 4/10
From Thursday AstraZeneca jabs were being offered in GP surgeries to 50-64 year olds with underlying health conditions. By mid-March they will be offered through GP’s AND pharmacies and available to all people over 50. 5/10
On the wider rollout…
Over 2.8m first doses were given by Thurs night and almost 1.5m second doses (which is 2x the 2nd doses given so far in the UK).
Feb. has been over twice as fast as Dec 27-Jan31 – but France will fall 1m short of the 4m shots promised for this month. 6/10
Weekend shots (slow in all countries) are desperately low in France (below 10,000 last Sun). The daily average in the last week was circa 112,000, slightly down on the previous week. It hit a new record of 180,020 on Thurs so yesterday’s figure, when known, may boost the av. 7/10
For a detailed look at where the French rollout stood on Thurs night, see the graph below by @NicolasBerrod, a go-to journalist on vax stats and updates. By my calculation, Fr. should deliver circa 3m jabs in 28 days this month – compared to 1.6m in the first 35 days.
8/10
Good news. France’s decision to give precedence to care homes is saving lives. Over 80% of care home residents have now had 1 shot and over 50% 2 shots. One in 3 of over-75’s have received 1 shot.
Care home deaths are down 50% in 3 weeks. 9/10

Looking ahead….Castex promised on Thurs that all willing over 75’s would be first vaccinated by the end of March and shots would (finally) be offered to the “forgotten” 65-74 cohort in early April.
If the AZ ban for over 65’s IS lifted, this could speed up significantly
10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

25 Feb
The French PM Jean Castex will give a press conference in a few mins on what he plans to do about the dozen or so départements (counties) where Covid variants are surging. Weekend lockdowns have already been imposed in the Nice area and Dunkirk. Paris area next? Not yet it seems
It seems the French PM will probably announce “consultations” with local governments in the départements concerned – a broad stripe to Paris from the Pas de Calais, plus Moselle in Lorraine. Weekend lockdowns and other new restrictions may follow
Health situation is deteriorating, Castex says. Over 30,000 cases nationwide yesterday for the first time since November. British variant is now half the cases in France - creating a new epidemic because more contagious than the original.
Read 14 tweets
24 Feb
French Covid thread.
It’s getting complicated. Parts of France are doing fairly well. A dozen départements – in the north, the Paris area, Lorraine and the Nice area – are suffering sharp spikes in cases. Dunkirk has been placed under weekend lockdown today, following Nice 1/11
Covid variants (mostly the UK one) are responsible for this surge. To know which 13 départements are worst affected - a daily average of more than 250 cases per 100,000 – look at this map from the wonderful Covidtracker site @GuillaumeRozier. 2/11
Image
The most stricken areas are Dunkirk with 900 cases per 100,000, four times the national average, and the Alpes Maritime department around Nice. Both are going into weekend lockdown for at least 2 weekends from Friday. The PM Jean Castex will announce other measures tomorrow. 3/11
Read 12 tweets
20 Feb
How is the French anti-Covid vaccination programme going? Better overall but there are still many failings and mysteries. By last Wednesday France had received, according to official figures, 570,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine but had used 67,256 of them – 11.7%. 1/10
Olivier Véran, health minister, said 12 days ago, that France would offer AZ to all health/care workers/ambulance crews/ home helps by next Monday. Jean Castex, PM, said 1,000,000 AZ jabs would be given this month.
After just over 2 weeks, Fr. had reached… 67,000 AZ jabs. 2/10
What’s going on? Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is considerable resistance to AZ in France, even among health workers, following reports of unpleasant after-effects and poor performance against some Covid variants. Officially, no info is forthcoming. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
13 Feb
French vaccines – booster thread.
In my last big French vax thread 2 weeks ago, I asked why the French programme was so slow. I’m pleased to say things have improved (a little) since then. 1/10
Here is an interesting fact. France, as of yesterday, has given more 2nd injections than Britain – 617,715 Fr to 570,094 UK. In other words France (though rightly criticised) has now fully vaccinated more people against Covid than Britain (which has been rightly praised). 2/10
This is explained, of course, by the fact that the UK is delaying all 2nd jabs for up to 12 weeks. In terms of first injections, the UK (with same population but started 3 weeks earlier) has vaxxed over 14m people. France now stands at 2.83m. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
French Covid thread. Depending on your viewpoint, the figures for the last week are “encouraging” (the government) or “misleadingly stable” (epidemiologists). Average daily cases and deaths fell for the first time in many weeks. But the “UK variant” continues to spread fast. 1/12
Ministers say the stats justify Prsdt Macron’s gamble 2 weeks ago in refusing a 3rd Fr. lockdown. Epidemiologists say the faster-moving UK and other variants will soon dominate – and cases/deaths will explode. The mutations are now 39% of cases in Paris area/ 21% nationwide. 2/12
The government admits that lockdown may still be necessary but they hope to avoid one. If it does happen - in March say - they believe Macron will given credit for preserving limited freedoms for as long as possible rather than blamed for risking lives. Maybe. Maybe not. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
5 Feb
New French vaccine thread…
The French programme is speeding up. Hooray. Without admitting they were ever slow, the French government says it can go faster. PM Jean Castex announced last night circa 1.5m extra injections this month – bringing the total to 4m. 1/16
The stats remain opaque but the extra jabs seem to involve a/ 500,000 new first shots for the over-75’s using Pfizer/Moderna doses and b/ 1,000,000 Astra-Zeneca shots which will be offered to health professional of all ages from tomorrow. 2/16
I have received a detailed reply from the health ministry to my questions on the pace of the French programme (which used just over half of the doses it had received at the end of Jan.). Libération newspaper carried a similar response. See below. 3/16
liberation.fr/checknews/la-f…
Read 16 tweets

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