Thread by @mabonapgwynfor

The reults of BBC Wales' St David's day poll, published today, have already started a discussion. In the #IndyWales movement people are asking how can it be that the % of those supporting Independence is lower in tbis poll than previous polls? Simple... /1

Wording.
It sounds innocuous, trivial, or petty even. But the words used in a question are absolutely crucial in how the people respond. The wording also reflects on those commissioning the poll. In this instance the BBC has opted for continuity /2

They use the same form of words that they've used over many years in order to measure against. But I think they need to ask themselves: is this the right question to ask in the first place? Does the wording manage to entice the response that correctly reflects the public mood? /3

ITV Wales use YouGov. The last Indy response showed approximately 1/3 of respondents supporting Independence. BBC's latest ICM poll has that figure at 14%. But we're not comparing like with like. Apples and pears, as they say. Let's look at the questions /4

YouGov ask:
"If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Wales be an independent country?" /5

However, BBC/ICM ask:
"Should Wales become independent, separate from the UK?" /6

These are two different questions. One is posed as a positive, and the other a negative. 'Separate' has negative connotations, while 'United' (U in UK) is a positive. The Q is asking if the respondent wants something damaging to happen to something that's posed as a positive /7

While the YouGov question carries no baggage. It stands alone.

This isn't new. There are studies about the impact of the difference in wording in Scotland. I wrote about it 4 years ago:
bellagwalia.org/2017/03/14/sil…
Also, we have to accept that as things stand it's hypothetical /8

We need the actual wording of what will be on a ballot paper in a referendum to have a real reflection. It's obvious that an unionist party won't give us that referendum, and therefore won't design the wording. So we can safely assume that the people of Wales /9

won't be asked about 'separation'. That being the case, it begs the question, what's the point of the BBC/ICM question? It tells us nothing, and adds nothing to the national debate. BBC should bite the bullet and reword it to gage a real reflection of the views in Wales. /Fin

@YesCymru
@MarchGlas