Marr: 'since interest rates are bound to rise, shouldnt we reduce public debt now?'
Dodds: reduce waste (?), but dont raise corporation tax
Nothing on public investment, on green transition, just bad politics.
unfortunately for us the British public, Sunak is running rings around Labour on macroeconomic policy.
Labour needs to make case for fiscal stimulus, to educate public on fiscal fundamentalism of 'interest rates will rise, cut public debt now'
it's doing none of this.
Come @AndrewMarr9 - if you ask Sunak what happens with 1% increase in interest rates, you can also ask whether @bankofengland can do something about it.
The answer would surprise you.
for example, look what @bankofengland has actually done for the Budget in 2020, with its QE program
Schnable makes strong case for monetary-fiscal coordination.
public sector 'insensitive to low policy rates', giving Euroarea a fiscally restrained stance that further weakened monetary policy
why? fear of market tensions and public debt sustainability.
she wont say coordination, but ' policy response to the pandemic is a remarkable showcase for the power of monetary and fiscal policy interaction to boost confidence'
yesterday, Vera Songwe of UN's Economic Commission for Africa called for Biden Administration to support a G20 SDR reallocation to low-income African countries
now that the S/B duo and other New Keynesians worry about pent-up demand, excess savings & inflation
I am reminded of similar debate, won by 'excess savings' crowd, with disastrous consequences in formerly planned economies.
it's 1989, the Berlin Wall is shaking, and IMF economists + theoreticians of centrally planned economies need to come up with a plan of what exactly transition macroeconomics should look like.
IMF and Disequilibrium School agreed: planned economies were 'chronic excess demand economies'
why? monetary overhang = the socialist worker couldnt spend her income because of chronic shortages and rationing.
pent up demand would explode into hyperinflation if left unchecked
In my evidence to @LordsEconCom, I argued that QE has fiscal spillovers that are poorly theorised & understood.
Reliance on QE alone created a massive failure of fiscal-monetary governance in 2010.
Good to see @guardian editorial warn against repeating that mistake post-pandemia
Bank of England's Internal Evaluation Office noted that the Bank should understand better the monetary-fiscal linkages created by QE.
I would go further, and argue that this gap affects:
a) transparency of QE
b) effectiveness of QE
c) design of fiscal measures
d) unwind of QE
a) Is QE transparent?
NO, if transparency = communicating clearly and effectively reasoning behind quantitative targets
two reasons: no theoretical tools to arrive at precise number, and no explicit consideration of 'monetary-fiscal linkages'
now for the exciting session on monetary populism on Hungary from Julia Kiraly, ex deputy governor of MNB (Hungary central bank):
my friends from the left and right, be careful!
oh, someone has read my work on Eastern European carry-trades.
Hungarian monetary populism: central banking subordinated to politics, that is divorced from economic thinking, but subservient to Orban oligarchs (!!!!!)