Single shot of Pfizer or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine cuts risk of hospitalisation by more than 90% dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Increases chances of earlier easing of lockdown than PM’s timetable
Earlier easing depends on: 1 speed of rollout; 2 level of takeup; 3 level of protection
1 Target for “offering” vaccine to all groups accounting for 99% of deaths is 15 Apr: will probably be met earlier, but allow 2 weeks for jabs to take effect
2 Current takeup (21 February) is 97% among over-70s; ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Sage modelling by SPI-M-O assumes 95% among over-80s, 85% among 50-80s assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3 Reduction in chance of hospitalisation: 85-90% via Chris Whitty; rev.com/blog/transcrip… 90+% via Mail on Sunday; reduction in chance of death is higher
Therefore, on a conservative estimate, by end April vaccines should prevent 90% of 90% of 99% of deaths = 80%
I think it’s likely to be higher than 80%, & earlier than end of Apr, hence my optimism here independent.co.uk/independentpre…
In addition vaccines should be significantly reducing the spread of the virus by then, further reducing risk
But just to note contrary evidence: “estimated effectiveness in preventing death from covid-19 was 72% in 2-3 weeks after 1st dose” of Pfizer in Israel to 1 Feb, BMJ bmj.com/content/372/bm…
Footnote: the takeup figs are even better – 97% of aged 70+ have had at least 1 dose; further 1% have been offered & are waiting ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Of the remaining 70+: 1% have been offered & decided not to be vaccinated; 1% don’t know or prefer not to say if likely to have it if offered
On the other hand, there’s this inews.co.uk/news/health/br…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
