I wrote this in 2009: "To pretend that the status quo [in the Middle East] can be maintained is wishful thinking. The real question is not whether existing political institutions will change, but how they will change." THREAD 1/
"Will the process of political change be evolutionary , as were the transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy in southern Europe in the 1970s or revolutionary, as in the case from the transition from monarchy to theocracy in Iran after 1979?" 2/
"Assuming that the configuration of autocratic regimes in place today will persist 50 years from now is much more naive than believing that some of these regimes might succeed in making the transition to democracy." 3/
From Advancing Democracy Abroad, published in 2009 (2 years before the Arab Spring), p. 143. 4/ amazon.com/Advancing-Demo…
And even after the tragedies of the Arab Spring, historical trajectories over centuries in other regions still suggest that evolutionary political change now can help prevent revolutionary change later. 5/ END THREAD
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