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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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2 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Significant progress is being made in Spain.

They are now averaging 8,000 cases per day (almost ⅕ of peak) and 290 deaths per day (~⅓ of peak). Well done! ImageImage
This progress is fairly uniform across regions. Valenciana, La Rioja, and Extremadura are improving rapidly. ImageImageImage
As new ‘waves’ are beginning in much of the world, now is the time to double down on containment efforts.

Our guidance for Spain is the same as it is for Portugal: utilize a Green Zone exit strategy to get to zero quickly and return to normalcy.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
3 Mar
Despite being hit very hard throughout all of 2020, the 7-day averages for both daily cases and daily deaths reach new highs in Brazil. ImageImage
Finland imposes a state of emergency order, allowing government officials to impose new restrictions to slow the spread of new variants.

They are currently averaging 560 cases and 2 deaths per day.

reuters.com/article/us-hea… ImageImage
Sweden’s response continues to be a failure among Scandinavian countries despite abandoning the herd immunity strategy.

New evidence points to intentional hiding of earlier deaths in school age children with 68% increase in excess mortality.

sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/c…
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Mar
Democratic leaders criticize Biden administration's "outmoded" guidance COVID-19 spread

"A group of House Democratic leaders are questioning the the Biden administration's guidance on aerosol transmission which they say relies on "outmoded" science.

1/
cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-…
"In a letter to White House COVID response chief Jeff Zients, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and acting Labor secretary Al Stewart, four House committee chairs say they have "serious questions" about adequacy of CDC's guidance on workplace protection from aerosol transmission

2/
"For the last two weeks, scientists, experts and unions have been prodding the administration to be more specific about guidance on exposure to small aerosol particles that carry COVID-19, which they say the CDC's official guidelines downplay.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
1 Mar
Good news! Portugal is reporting remarkable progress. Yesterday they reported 1,071 cases and 33 deaths, both ~1/10 of their peak.

It's time to think about an Exit strategy to avoid future waves and allow the country to return to normalcy as soon as possible: Green Zones. ImageImage
Nearly every major region in Portugal has significant reductions in cases. None of the mainland regions are ready to open up as a whole, but if they can be subdivided into smaller regions, the path to reopening can be accelerated. ImageImage
The Azores archipelago is close to ZeroCovid.

Madeira, the other Portugese archipelago, is the one region in which cases are not declining rapidly recently. Portugal airlifted patients there a month ago when hospitals were overflowing. Image
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Feb
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is compelling

The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks

1/
It is time to recognize the scientific basis of India's success and give it its due. With the number of new cases in India leveling recently, the urgency is great to complete the elimination process so that a new surge does not occur.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
Should India join countries in Asia and Oceania in elimination, 50% of the world would become COVID free, and provide an example for emulation that is surely unexpected by western observers.

3/ Image
Read 27 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Feb
New Zealand identified one case of local transmission in Auckland and initiated a 7-day level 3 lockdown for the city.

nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
Vietnam continues to report decreasing case numbers after experiencing their largest outbreak of the pandemic in late January.

Yesterday they reported 5 cases: 4 were already in quarantine, 1 was imported and was placed in quarantine.
Australia reported 5 cases of local transmission since Melbourne lifted its 5 day lockdown. All were linked to the original hotel outbreak and were already quarantined when they were diagnosed.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Feb
A worrying trend is emerging: as many countries reported significant reductions in cases over the past several months, resurgences are beginning, and cases are creeping upward in recent weeks.

We’re likely seeing the beginning of the next “wave” of infections.
Possible causes include new variants, changes in government policy, changes in behavior, or all of the above.

What is clear from the data: attempting to open up and tolerate “low” levels of cases has failed over and over again.
There are few countries that are succeeding in keeping cases low but non-zero. South Korea and Japan are the most well-known examples.

Still, this strategy comes with a clear downside: they can not safely return to normalcy, unlike the countries succeeding with #ZeroCovid.
Read 7 tweets

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