A worrying trend is emerging: as many countries reported significant reductions in cases over the past several months, resurgences are beginning, and cases are creeping upward in recent weeks.
We’re likely seeing the beginning of the next “wave” of infections.
Possible causes include new variants, changes in government policy, changes in behavior, or all of the above.
What is clear from the data: attempting to open up and tolerate “low” levels of cases has failed over and over again.
There are few countries that are succeeding in keeping cases low but non-zero. South Korea and Japan are the most well-known examples.
Still, this strategy comes with a clear downside: they can not safely return to normalcy, unlike the countries succeeding with #ZeroCovid.
Dozens of countries have been successful in pursuing ZeroCovid.
This begs the question: why do some authorities dismiss #ZeroCovid as implausible or impossible, while advocating suppression as a strategy more likely to work?
Global data suggests the opposite is true.
Good news for Portugal:
Cases declining 8% per day.
They extended the lockdown by two weeks till mid March
They are developing a reopening plan
By then the number of cases should be about 180 per day.
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
Answer is compelling
The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks
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It is time to recognize the scientific basis of India's success and give it its due. With the number of new cases in India leveling recently, the urgency is great to complete the elimination process so that a new surge does not occur.
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Should India join countries in Asia and Oceania in elimination, 50% of the world would become COVID free, and provide an example for emulation that is surely unexpected by western observers.
Vietnam continues to report decreasing case numbers after experiencing their largest outbreak of the pandemic in late January.
Yesterday they reported 5 cases: 4 were already in quarantine, 1 was imported and was placed in quarantine.
Australia reported 5 cases of local transmission since Melbourne lifted its 5 day lockdown. All were linked to the original hotel outbreak and were already quarantined when they were diagnosed.
With global case levels down to ~½ of peak, we’re seeing an increase in both green (“winning”) and yellow (“nearly there”) countries on EndCoronavirus.org/countries.
Now 31 green countries, reporting very low numbers of new cases. Congratulations!
Several countries in eastern Europe are now reporting resurgences. It is very likely that the new variants are playing a significant role in much of Europe.
US has reported significant progress over the last 2 months. Progress might be coming to a halt and possibly turning into a new increase. Test positivity and cases are both going back up recently.
How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?
Answer is riveting
Start with Dharabi, largest slum in Asia: Impressive community case finding, contact tracing, isolation, quarantine, communications, massive health and volunteer effort, lockdown, support.
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COVID-19 Containment in Asia’s Largest Urban Slum Dharavi-Mumbai, India: Lessons for Policymakers Globally
“Dharavi, Asia’s largest and densely populated urban slum, has successfully contained the COVID-19 with its innovative public health policy response. The municipal administration called this model as “chasing the virus” rather than waiting for people to report it.
Germany has reported significant progress in 2021, bringing cases down to ~⅓ of peak. Over the last several days, that progress has slowed, and the 7-day averages for cases and deaths have flattened.
Yesterday they reported 5,764cases and 422 deaths.
Angela Merkel warned yesterday that Germany might be beginning a third wave due to new variants, and emphasized that the country “cannot afford ups and downs”.
Although the country as a whole has seen progress slow down, several regions are still reporting progress. Saarland, the smallest German state, is setting an example.