Thread by @BeirutCalling

I'm wondering if the protests today across Lebanon are not only a natural reaction of people in distress, but also a concerted effort by the political leadership opposed to Aoun and Bassil to raise the pressure on them both to greenlight a new government: bit.ly/3dWfaEa

The sudden proliferation of protests across different geographical and sectarian areas makes me think that there is a political dimension as well here: Is this a new May 7, which brought down Rashid al-Solh's government in 1992? But this time directed against Aoun and Bassil?

Both Aoun and Bassil seem to believe, perhaps rightly, that if there is a Hariri-led government in which they don't have a blocking third, they will be marginalized by the other forces in it, particularly if Hariri prioritizes a partnership with the Shia parties.

On top of this Bassil realizes that a priority for "reform" will be the Energy Ministry, given that it's an open vein in terms of government expenditures. This means that there will be majority wanting to focus on fixing the ministry, the one strong card Bassil still holds.

Making matters worse for Bassil, the French hold him responsible for the blockage, calling him "incompetent and dangerous for the country's future." This message is beign circulated in the media: bit.ly/3dYIr0Y

The problem is that Aoun and Bassil have burned all their bridges. They've failed to read the shifts in Sunni-Shia relations and thought they could rely indefinitely on Hezbollah's support. They're now on their own, with everyone arrayed against them.

If this reading is correct, the protests will escalate, creating a semblance of a crisis which Aoun will have to address. Simply sitting and waiting catatonically, as Aoun has been doing for over two months, will no longer be an option. Hezbollah will also make this clear to him.

So this may be the start of a push by the political cartel, against one of their recalcitrant members. In the days ahead we will see if this escalates, and I predict it will. Hezbollah's cover for Bassil, which was fraying in recent weeks, may simply no longer be present.