1/ this is the most detailed description of the lab-leak hypothesis I have seen (and I don't buy it)
It posits a "chopped-and-channeled version of RaTG13 or the miners’ virus that included elements that would make it thrive and even rampage in people?" nymag.com/intelligencer/…
2/ to be clear, I've seen first-hand-in a 7 month-old baby-the scourge of a lab-produced bioweapon that was exfilitrated (anthrax 2001).
I agree w @mlipsitch position that the risks of creating Gain of Function pathogens w increased infectivity/deadliness outweigh the benefits
3/ beyond artful prose and connect-the-dots suggestions, here's the idea:
That a bat virus sample (RaTG13) was manipulated in Wuhan lab to be more infectious through the lego-block addition of key genetic mediators of human infection
But that's not what the sequence looks like
4/ it's been a long time since I worked in a molecular biology lab or looked at GenBank sequences, but this isn't the pattern you would expect in the "chop shop" hypothesis
There aren't largely conserved areas with a few small regions inserted, this looks like evolutionary drift
5/ in my experience, lab scientists work with tools that are worn smooth by repeated use in their hands (it's hard to get things to work!)
In any accidental lab release you would see the signatures of the sequences most often used by that lab in their prior published research
6/ That's not what we see with COVID-19.
There are alternative lab explanations I'd believe
Is it possible that it was a new virus brought to the lab, whose sequences were not placed in public repositories, and which escaped into Wuhan?
Sure. (that's not bio-engineering)
7/ Is it possible that this was produced in a "dark lab" which did not publish their research or place sequences in public repositories?
Sure. But that's the whole reason why the US Government would fund these efforts worldwide, so we can have visibility into what's happening
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3/ Here's some more data- why did life expectancy plummet in 1917-1918 (by 10 years!) then rebound completely?
Life expectancy is the average number of years a group of infants would live if they were to experience prevailing age-specific death rates throughout their life
1/ The Denmark variant story was pointed out by several people as being quite concerning- this line struck me - "Cases involving the variant are increasing 70 percent a week in Denmark, despite a strict lockdown"
But the actual data was hard to pin down- so I dug it up
2/ "The U.K. variant was 2 percent of sequenced coronavirus cases the last full week of 2020. By the second week of January, it had risen to 7 percent."
But in the context of declining cases what does that mean?
3/ But those aren't actually the true cases, cause despite the headline "Denmark is sequencing all coronavirus samples..." while they are *trying* to sequence all, the number of cases with a genome of sufficient quality relative to the total number of cases ranges w-w from 10-36%
2/ What's the natural response then, from those all the way down the distribution chain, from state administrators to hospital execs worried about "wrong people" getting vaccinated first?
You spend more time collecting data, parsing into finer and finer gradations
You slow down
3/ Hospitals and nursing homes don't release more to staff until every i has been dotted.
States don't release more to hospitals and nursing homes until they've used up allotment
feds don't release more to states
Amidst a vaccine shortage, available supply sits in warehouses.