‘There is a palpable concern’: Biden presses advisers over 100 million Covid shot goal politi.co/2XHhk1f
2/ first, I am so glad @JoeBiden *is* putting a hard to reach goal out there
When @matkendall and I set our first public targets @ONC_HealthIT a longtime fed told us "never give them a date AND a number"
It's risky, it's gutsy, and it's the right thing to do for the country.
3/ It will be very hard to hit 100M in 100 days
But the very fact that this article was written EVEN BEFORE THEY START points to the intense focus it brings.
The new admin may miss their first big test, but vaccinate tens of millions more than if they shunned responsibility
🇺🇸
4/ I'm also really happy to hear that @JoeBiden is "urging advisers to avoid generalities and drill down on the particulars"
The details are everything in a job like this. It's not enough to say, breezily, we give it to the states, then it's their problem.
That approach failed
5/ "Pushing on details" <> "don't trust the team"
“He wants to know about the practical details. I think that’s a good thing because that makes sure the plans are grounded in reality, but I don’t take from those conversations that he doesn’t believe in his team.”
8/ Yes, we need feds to not abdicate their role and engage directly (c/f testing debacle)
Setting up field centers to cover high volume urban centers as well as underserved rural areas makes sense.
But we also need to open the CDC's (non-state) pipeline beyond CVS/Walgreens
9/ This is the system CDC has established to take orders for the vaccine supply purchased by the feds and to get them shipped (by McKesson) to the recipients.
Right now, the only "provider organizations" getting vaccine from CDC (vs states) are the pharmacies
Expand this pipe
10/ Yes, pushing out more vaccine doses so they are not sitting in federal warehouses is good.
But we have a huge "last mile" problem.
Feds -> State -> Hospitals -> ? -> High risk elderly
Trickle down from hospitals with excess doses before they spoil is not a good plan.
11/ Non-hospital physician practices can't even figure out how to get their own staff vaccinated.
2/ What's the natural response then, from those all the way down the distribution chain, from state administrators to hospital execs worried about "wrong people" getting vaccinated first?
You spend more time collecting data, parsing into finer and finer gradations
You slow down
3/ Hospitals and nursing homes don't release more to staff until every i has been dotted.
States don't release more to hospitals and nursing homes until they've used up allotment
feds don't release more to states
Amidst a vaccine shortage, available supply sits in warehouses.
1/ Opening schools in the midst of a COVID surge is a hard problem with unavoidable tradeoffs.
There are absolutist statements on either side of the debate, so I expect passionate rebuttals, but let me lay out a decision-making framework, from an epidemiologists' perspective
2/ First off, we have to make sure that the schools have the resources and space to implement the 5 key mitigation
strategies correctly and consistently.
Not a given.
*Masks
*Social distancing
*Contact tracing
*Hand hygiene
*Cleaning and disinfection
first 2 >> last 2
3/ Let's say we have some resources for testing, how does that contribute?
What we are trying to achieve?
Do you think the goal is Screening (identify asymptomatic infectious cases before they can expose others) or Surveillance (understand incidence to inform policy)?
1/ It's indescribable seeing results from NYC EMS ambulance runs showing how cardiac arrests skyrocketed during COVID
(I started a program to monitor these symptoms in real time--among the very first application of syndromic surveillance in public health, 2 decades ago)
2/ Every day, crews from @FDNY are called to 20 to 30 patients who have collapsed, and attempt resuscitation. Can you imagine?
It's never like the movies. Most patients die, ribs cracked. 75% of the time you never get a heart rate back.
On April 6, there were 305.
305.
3/ In the dry language of medical research the researchers describe the horrible statistics.
During the peak, most patients had nonshockable presenting rhythms of asystole and pulseless electrical activity. 92.2% of the time they called off the resuscitation without a pulse.
1/ I've been feeling more and more disengaged from COVID work, disillusioned with the growing realization that all the smart research and policy doesn't make a damn bit of difference
Not for the 1st time, I've seen that what I thought was an information problem is something else
2/ I so admire those public health Cassandras who've been unrelenting, continuing to beat the drum of science and policy for the past 9 months
repeating over and over again what must be done, as the cases and deaths mount, with no strategy in sight
tweets, interviews, articles
3/ It's perhaps no accident that they (and I) are "formers"
People who ran the agencies, who know the pain of the experts and scientists working inside, and are free to speak
2/ To test hypothesis that health systems provide better care to patients w high needs, diff in quality b/w system‐affiliated & nonaffiliated physicians
ED visits were significantly *different* in system‐affiliated (117.5 per 100) & nonaffiliated POs (106.8 per 100, P < .0001).
3/ I love how delicately the RAND researchers approach this in their conclusion: “Health systems may not confer hypothesized quality advantages to patients with high needs.”
2/ When CMS first released their public use files, I ran some analyses looking for aberrations-
One thing that jumped right out was...Repetitive non-emergency ambulance runs- often for the same person going back and forth to dialysis 3 times a week.
"Medicare and law enforcement officials will need to create new processes for dealing with a potential flood of outlier reports from amateur sleuths like me."