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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Mar 3, 2021 • 17 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
⚠️BRAZIL COVID EMERGENCY—Entire 🇧🇷 is now “Manaus”. 1700+ deaths in 24 hours, ICUs critical.

📌#P1 🇧🇷 variant is ~2x-2.5x more transmissible, says @obscovid19br

📌17 state capitals ICUs >80% full

📌”Exponential #COVID19 growth unlike any other that we have seen” @bollemdb 🧵 Image
2) Brazil is becoming an enormous Manaus" - @MiguelNicolelis
3) One group puts #P1 at an astoundingly high 2x more transmissibility.

Experiences from Manaus - the Amazonian city hit hard by the P.1 variant - suggest it could be up to twice as transmissible as earlier Covid there, the first detailed study suggests.
bbc.com/news/amp/healt…
4) They also put the chance of #COVID19 reinfection via #P1 at between 25% and 60%

github.com/CADDE-CENTRE/N…
5) Another group, @obscovid19br, is premiering results soon showing 2.5x: “In our model, which uses data on hospitalizations from Manaus, #P1 is **2.5x more transmissible** than the wild-type B lineage,” says @bollemdb.
6) How epically bad is #P1’s 2-2.5x transmissibility?

➡️ “It’s huge.” ~@bollemdb
7) Dr @bollemdb and I call for world leaders to help Brazil 🇧🇷 urgently now.

This will be the “worse humanitarian crisis the world has seen in this pandemic” if we don’t act now!
8) I’ve been trying to warn the world about Brazil 🇧🇷 for months. Manaus epidemic was a canary in coal mine. But we didn’t listen to their cries.
9) Folks—I am **not** exaggerating how serious it is in Brazil. Those of us in the English-speaking world have a bias towards English speaking country news. But news from 🇧🇷 is extremely sobering. @agencia_fiocruz is very reputable: their @fiocruz warning.
agencia.fiocruz.br/covid-19-nota-…
10) “In a special edition, the Bulletin of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory publishes a technical note with a warning that, for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, there is simultaneous worsening of several indicators throughout the country...”
11) “such as the increase in the number of cases and deaths, the maintenance of high levels of incidence of #SARSCov2, the high positivity of tests and the burden of hospitals. At the moment, 19 units of 🇧🇷 have icu bed occupancy rates above 80% – in the previous Bulletin, 12.”
12) “The alarming scenario, according to the analysis, represents only the tip of the iceberg of a level of intense transmission in the country. Therefore, the researchers believe that it is necessary to adopt more stringent non-pharmacological measures.”
13) “In view of this situation, the researchers at Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory highlight the need to adopt stricter measures to restrict circulation and non-essential activities, according to the epidemiological situation and care capacity of each region” @fiocruz @fiocruz_en
14) In the US, there are 10 reported #P1 variant cases so far.

Where are half of all P1 in US? ➡️ Florida.

Where is also #B117 surging fastest? ➡️ Florida. Image
15) Let us learn from Manaus. Let’s not chase natural infection herd. Let’s not repeat it. bmj.com/content/372/bm… Image
16) Brazil crisis is accelerating it all parts of the country — even the wealthiest... look at this hospitalization and mortality curve!!$
17) It is cataclysmically bad in Brazil right now...

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 2
Reminder—Trump had expressed executing people on many occasions while President, according to his own Attorney General. Now the Supreme Court has green lit any official act with full presidential immunity. Germany did the same in 1933. It turned out great.
2) If we ignore history, we are bound to repeat it. How Germany became Nazi Germany in 1933….
3) And the U.S. military will become Trump’s official personal army.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 1
American Democracy is dead. Long Live the King. The King can now “assassinate you, officially”.

By @ElieNYC
thenation.com/article/societ…
Image
2) Laws aren’t really laws anymore to the President of the United States. Who do you want as president now?
3) American democracy had a great 240-year run. Too bad it’s now sorta over after today’s SCOTUS ruling.
Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 23
📍 The New York Times Is Failing Its Readers Badly on Covid

📌“Example of ‘science opinion’ run amok in the [NY Times] is a piece… by Zeynep Tufekci, a commentator with no training in biological science or epidemiology… ➡️Tufekci plays into the hands of the anti-science politicians who now seek vengeance on the flimsiest of grounds.”

By GREGG GONSALVES and JOHN P. MOORE
thenation.com/article/societ…Image
Image
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2) “Tufekci also adds to the ongoing pile-on about whether the directive to maintain a distance of six feet from others was needed. Although the precise distance was indeed somewhat arbitrary, there was no possibility of obtaining hard data in the relevant time frame. The six-foot distance was a reasonable assumption based on public health history, and the practice of social distancing for other respiratory pathogens, particularly those spread by droplets. It was also adopted in multiple other countries, for the same reasons.”
3) “The problem here isn’t that Tufekci is questioning the evidentiary basis of the six-foot rule—science and public health cannot progress if we don’t evaluate the results of our work. But that progress is more effective when grounded in good-faith inquiry, rather than the kinds of attacks Tufekci levels against government scientists for doing their best in desperate circumstances. This only serves to bolster the forces who seek to destroy the US public health infrastructure, not make it better.

Tufekci also leaves the impression that she alone realized SARS-CoV-2 was airborne early on. In fact, the debate about transmission was fast and furious within the scientific community at that time”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 17
⚠️Whooping cough has smashed all records in UK🇬🇧 with barely any serious govt actions. These are NEW CASES PER WEEK, not cumulative. Each week smashing previous. Other countries rising too amid anti-vax. Pertussis is also airborne!

Graph @1goodtern
gov.uk/government/pub…
Image
2) And yes it’s airborne damnit. CDC says so.

cdc.gov/pertussis/hcp/…
Image
3) Whooping cough is also extremely contagious. For up to 3 weeks. With UK govt advising staying home for 3 full weeks if no antibiotic treatment. How many people being told that and doing that?

nhs.uk/conditions/who…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 12
⚠️SURGING COVID cases & hospitalizations in Madrid, Spain🇪🇸—hospitalizations for COVID has now exceeded also 2022-2023. This is the globally surging KP3 variant (US too)—it is highly evasive against past immunity—you’re not immune. Take preventive action.
comunidad.madrid/sites/default/…

Image
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2) New York City’s COVID cases are also increasing, as noted by @emmagf. June is not normal cold and flu season at all. This shows that this KP3 surging despite non-flu season means it’s a troublemaker. Image
@emmagf 3) Hawaii’s ERs also have gotten slammed hard by an off-season COVID surge. This isn’t normal at all for June. This is why we need to be on alert. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 11
📍Breaking—MASK BAN PASSED AGAIN—North Carolina Republicans have again voted to pass a new ban on mask wearing. Only a weak partial medical exemption added for PUBLIC areas—but, on private properties, like at grocery stores or at a workplace, the bill now says people can still be “REQUIRED TO REMOVE MASKS” if demanded by employer or owner (your health be damned). But, thank goodness Halloween masks will still be allowed.
motherjones.com/politics/2024/…Image
2) “Many healthcare professionals have expressed concerns that their patients would not be able to stay safe against the spread of Covid-19 and other infectious diseases.” Image
3) the scary thing is that “The bill, which was drafted in response to people wearing masks at Pro-Palestinian protests, can be passed by the General Assembly **even if Democratic Governor Roy Cooper vetoes** it through an override.”
Read 8 tweets

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