Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️BRAZIL COVID EMERGENCY—Entire 🇧🇷 is now “Manaus”. 1700+ deaths in 24 hours, ICUs critical.

📌#P1 🇧🇷 variant is ~2x-2.5x more transmissible, says @obscovid19br

📌17 state capitals ICUs >80% full

📌”Exponential #COVID19 growth unlike any other that we have seen” @bollemdb 🧵

2) Brazil is becoming an enormous Manaus" - @MiguelNicolelis

3) One group puts #P1 at an astoundingly high 2x more transmissibility.

Experiences from Manaus - the Amazonian city hit hard by the P.1 variant - suggest it could be up to twice as transmissible as earlier Covid there, the first detailed study suggests.
bbc.com/news/amp/healt…

4) They also put the chance of #COVID19 reinfection via #P1 at between 25% and 60%

github.com/CADDE-CENTRE/N…

5) Another group, @obscovid19br, is premiering results soon showing 2.5x: “In our model, which uses data on hospitalizations from Manaus, #P1 is **2.5x more transmissible** than the wild-type B lineage,” says @bollemdb.

6) How epically bad is #P1’s 2-2.5x transmissibility?

➡️ “It’s huge.” ~@bollemdb

7) Dr @bollemdb and I call for world leaders to help Brazil 🇧🇷 urgently now.

This will be the “worse humanitarian crisis the world has seen in this pandemic” if we don’t act now!

https://twitter.com/bollemdb/status/1367111749078499337

8) I’ve been trying to warn the world about Brazil 🇧🇷 for months. Manaus epidemic was a canary in coal mine. But we didn’t listen to their cries.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1350039932090376193

9) Folks—I am **not** exaggerating how serious it is in Brazil. Those of us in the English-speaking world have a bias towards English speaking country news. But news from 🇧🇷 is extremely sobering. @agencia_fiocruz is very reputable: their @fiocruz warning.
agencia.fiocruz.br/covid-19-nota-…

10) “In a special edition, the Bulletin of the Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory publishes a technical note with a warning that, for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, there is simultaneous worsening of several indicators throughout the country...”

11) “such as the increase in the number of cases and deaths, the maintenance of high levels of incidence of #SARSCov2, the high positivity of tests and the burden of hospitals. At the moment, 19 units of 🇧🇷 have icu bed occupancy rates above 80% – in the previous Bulletin, 12.”

12) “The alarming scenario, according to the analysis, represents only the tip of the iceberg of a level of intense transmission in the country. Therefore, the researchers believe that it is necessary to adopt more stringent non-pharmacological measures.”

13) “In view of this situation, the researchers at Covid-19 Fiocruz Observatory highlight the need to adopt stricter measures to restrict circulation and non-essential activities, according to the epidemiological situation and care capacity of each region” @fiocruz @fiocruz_en

14) In the US, there are 10 reported #P1 variant cases so far.

Where are half of all P1 in US? ➡️ Florida.

Where is also #B117 surging fastest? ➡️ Florida.

15) Let us learn from Manaus. Let’s not chase natural infection herd. Let’s not repeat it. bmj.com/content/372/bm…

16) Brazil crisis is accelerating it all parts of the country — even the wealthiest... look at this hospitalization and mortality curve!!$

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1368148998985560071

17) It is cataclysmically bad in Brazil right now...

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1368135341916454914