1. WSJ: The Emerging Conservative Coalition
Trump, AOC and BLM made the GOP more diverse.
“Over the last four years, white liberals have become a larger and larger share of the Democratic Party,” says Democratic polling maven David Shor -- an Obama campaign veteran.
Trump, AOC and BLM made the GOP more diverse.
“Over the last four years, white liberals have become a larger and larger share of the Democratic Party,” says Democratic polling maven David Shor -- an Obama campaign veteran.
2. Democrats gained 0.5-1.0% among non-college whites and roughly 7% among white college graduates.
Democrats lost 1-2% among African-Americans, lost 8-9% among Hispanics, and lost 5% among Asian Americans.
Democrats lost 1-2% among African-Americans, lost 8-9% among Hispanics, and lost 5% among Asian Americans.
3. Not a lot of people expected Donald Trump’s GOP to have a much more diverse support base than Mitt Romney’s did in 2012. But that’s exactly what happened.
4. “One important thing to know about the decline in Hispanic support for Democrats is that it was pretty broad,” says Mr. Shor.
5. Take for example Doral, which is a predominantly Venezuelan and Colombian neighborhood in South Florida. One precinct in that neighborhood went for Hillary Clinton by 40 points in 2016 and for Trump by ten points in 2020.
6. One thing that makes Colombia and Venezuela different from much of Latin America is that socialism as a brand has a very specific, very high salience meaning in those countries. It’s associated with FARC paramilitaries in Colombia and with President Maduro in Venezuela.
7. So one natural inference is that the increased salience of socialism in 2020 — with the rise of AOC and the prominence of anti-socialist messaging from the GOP — had something to do with the shift among those groups.
Well done, @AOC!
The End
Well done, @AOC!
The End
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