Thread by @BambroughKevin

As I chat with more and more people I know that we’re all over uranium in the 2003-2007 time period I’m still shocked how under invested they are now.

Also, I don’t care how good any uranium analyst out there thinks they are we are all in the same boat when it comes predicting

No one can model the number of new reactor builds we will have under construction in 5 years and certainly not in 10 years from now. The resurgence in interest surprising nearly everyone now

When we look at the most bullish forecasts for demand growth that have been produced I can’t help out laugh. #uranium demand is gonna blow the market away.

The super bears still control the narrative and pressure and push back on those trying to stick there neck out even a bit

Funny thing is most people accept that we are gonna be globally attempting to go 100 percent EV in 20 years or so. Most major manufacturers have said they will be producing ONLY electric vehicles by 2035

But the vehicle industry isn’t in charge of the electrical grid. Elon Musk $tsla says the electrical grid needs to double by 2040. Says it almost in passing. Like what ever. Just double electrical production... no prob. Well...

Doubling the electrical grid output by 2040 is nearly impossible. Cause it’s gonna take a lot of supplies. Copper and steel. For the grid. But also 3x the copper and all the special metal demand for the batteries. And guess what...

To produce metals it takes energy and metal, in past commodity cycles we’ve seen shortages of roof bolts, large vehicle tires, port congestion, steel prices spike, etc.

This winter I could barely source winter tires. I had to wait a year to get a new Jeep. Lol.

If you read in some feasibility study that some mine will be built in 5 years at a cost of $1bln. Best plan on 8 years and $3bln instead. Cause that’s exactly what happened in the last cycle.

#uranium demand per year is probably gonna be up 3-5x with in 10 years. Perhaps in part to stock pile for those entities that end up deciding to really commit nuclear power.

The tightness of supply and difficulty contracting will cause many to seek contract 10+ years supply.

When your committing to a new reactor build don’t you think it makes sense to lock up a 20 year supply agreement? If you country is gonna be 20-30 percent nuclear don’t you think you should have a national stock pile of size?

The general public doesn’t have clue about nuclear power and uranium demand and 99 percent of future uranium investors won’t even barely scratch the surface with analytical work on mining or economics and no fucking npv@10 shit...

The general public will treat uranium like another other sector they think is going up. They will hear of the price rising. They will hear its green now and good. They will hear there’s shortages and the price will be going higher

And they will dump money into the uranium etfs like they’ve been trained to do with all there investments.

Those uranium etfs will help yellowcake and upc gobble up physical. They will push all the stocks higher. They will have no choice to buy all the stocks in there index

The valuations will get silly extreme and many early investors will sell out along the way. And then complain that it doesn’t make sense. Just like the contrarians and value investors complain about $tsla or bitcrap.

It’s gonna be wild and a lot of fun and I rant like this on days when $pdn and my other holdings have had big runs to remind myself not to screw around and try to trade these stocks. Cause I know I’ll get left in the dust as the etfs keep on gobbling.