Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. BTW- this phenomena that @davidshor finds in his work, about non-white conservative voter "slippage"- the slippage is all from these voters being targeted for the first time w messaging (persuasion messaging from the Death Star). Effective lies.

No one would believe this

2. could pay dividends, bc "digital ads don't do anything." But when you have Black & Latino voters who have never been targeted bc they are reliable voters & all the sudden they are getting these "law & order" ads from the Trump campaign...

Proof is in your own data. If Trump

3. campaign had used abortion as their big issue (& they may well have if the Dem socialists weren't dumb enough to come up w something as god awful as "defund the police" then your non-white conservatives who went Clinton-Trump would be pinging off of THAT issue. Its not an

4. accident that its law & order. 2020 was the prototype- it was the toe dip. Now that they know "persuasion" can work w non-white voters (also, go look at your data, there's likely an education effect underlying this too) they are going to bring the heat in 2022 & spend massive

5. amounts on digital persuasion of nonwhites voters. If the D's don't completely change how they do their own targeting they are going to get run over. And although Shor is right that college edu whites, esp the young ones are way more liberal than their non-white counterparts

6. his analysis commits the same fallacy as so many diagnostics do. BC here's the issue. The issue isn't radicalism in the D party, esp not relative to R Party. The issue is perceptional. Bc here is an analysis talking about how the D Party is "too liberal" for a set of non-white

7. voters in their coalition at the very same time the other party is hosting a president so anti-American he tried to pull off an insurrection and end democracy in America. Once again, its a messaging problem. So long as Ds allow Rs to set the terms of the messaging stage- they

8. will have this problem. So long as they set their campaign narrative up around micro-issues and not major thematic issues that plague the GOP, that draw out the worst aspects of the modern Republican Party and disqualify it from holding power, they will lose. THAT is the

9. diagnostic the party needs. Put simply, they are losing races they should win bc the GOP is running propaganda, misinformation, disinformation no holds barred warfare campaigns against them & Ds want to wish themselves into a world where it will all just go away. Where they

10. campaign on principles and ideas. Where HR 1 passes bc it enables more people to vote. Where COVID aid occurs under a D president & not just under Republicans ones. But we do not live in that world anymore and haven't for so long now that the forces of good are so diminished

11. that one or two more bad election cycles for this party threatens to wipes the whole damn thing away. Look at McConnell these days, in the eyes, and you'll see a man who knows he went too far. Ds must fight the GOP's war, whether they want to or not. You see the massive jump

12. of college edu white +9pts my theory/research predicted starting back in 2017 and that's w/o competent messaging- that's bc that particular demo reads/watches the news and is hard to gaslight. And what Trump & now the whole of the GOP are doing freaked them out! But somewhere

13. out there in GOP world, someone like me got a crazy idea of microtargeting non-white voters w the socialism stuff (for Latinos) and defund the police and I am SURE there were naysayers who said, you can't get Black voter to vote for Trump. Well bullshit you can't. And if we

14. don't answer the GOP's "socialism" w messaging that is focused on the GOP's extremism, refusal to pass policy, shitty governance & the GOP's white supremacy issues & instead try to talk about health care or whatever we will lose. nymag.com/intelligencer/…