Thread by @NashSGC

We are in for a long, bumpy, and, potentially, dangerous ride as the UK & EU work out how to live next to each other in a post-Brexit world.

There are four fundamentals to keep in mind when considering how this relationship might develop:

1. All roads lead to the border.

This was true at every critical moment during the negotiations & will continue to be the case as the new relationship develops.

2. The only objectives that matter are defending sovereignty (UK) & defending the single market (EU).

Almost all disputes will be a variation of the UK resisting what it perceives as encroachments on its sovereignty, & the EU resisting what it perceives as the UK seeking unfair access to the single market.

3. This govt has no interest in having a good relationship with the EU.

While the PM may talk of “European friends”, actions speak louder than words, and these demonstrate that govt is comfortable with, feels that it is necessary to, and/or is actively pursuing a combative relationship with the EU.

4. Neither side trusts the other.

When these are taken into account, it is hard to imagine a world where the UK & EU will quietly work together to repair relations, build trust, and implement the agreements that they have signed.

So those hoping for a quiet life are going to be disappointed. There are going to be many more moments when the UK and the EU fall out, and more often than not, they are going to fall out over Northern Ireland.

Managing what happens in NIre is one of the few areas of the UK/EU agreements (beyond broad implementation) where there is shared responsibility. Much of the rest of the relationship is set up to be transactional, but the Protocol demands cooperation.

It is in the context of NI that the new UK/EU relationship will be forged, and their ability to live with each other truly tested.

What is concerning, is that we appear to be in a vicious cycle where an absence of trust encourages a combative approach, and that combative approach helps undermine trust. And then all that is left is the UK and EU’s contrasting priorities clashing within the crucible of NI.

What might make matters worse is if application of these priorities, particularly by the UK, becomes more absolute (the EU’s position is already fairly absolute).

It is only in the context of the Protocol that the UK made a significant break with its desire to defend its sovereignty at all costs.

Unlike in GB, EU rules (some, not all), still apply in N.Ire. This was a price the govt was willing to pay in 2019 to break the impasse, & win an election, but its actions since wld suggest that it wants a refund.

If the govt. decides that the Brexit it agreed is in fact intolerable because part of the UK remains subject to EU rules, and that it will do what is necessary to address this, it is left with three options...

(i) Rip up the Withdrawal Agreement & unilaterally erect a border on the island of Ireland

(ii) Allow NIre to exit the UK

(iii) Renegotiate key elements of the Protocol

Options 1 and 2 come with significant risks. Option 3 is extremely difficult but is by far the most palatable if the govt. really cannot live with the Protocol as it stands

But if renegotiation is what the govt. wants, then it needs to go back to the fundamentals of its relationship with the EU and change the ones that are in its control. Specifically, it must address the lack of trust in the relationship.

It can do this, in part, by dialing down its combative approach. It can also build trust by doing all it can to implement the Protocol as it stands. Unless the govt demonstrates that it wants to make the new arrangements work, not just wreck them, the EU will not trust it.

If the UK does this & it is clear that the Protocol doesn’t work, then it can justifiably ask that a discussion begin about changing it.

And, if sufficient trust has been built up, the EU might be willing, not only to have that conversation, but to take a less absolute view of its priorities if that is what is necessary to create a sustainable framework for future relations.

Ultimately, all roads will continue to lead to the border, and contrasting priorities will always result in the UK and EU clashing on occasion, but it is within the govt’s gift to make the ride we are currently on less bumpy and less dangerous.