There is no legal provisions available to extend the status quo (i.e. the transition). The deadline for doing this passed on 1st July. That's it. Opportunity gone. Now the only options are to end transition with a deal, or without a deal.
So the only way now to extend the status quo is to create a new legal base in international law that make provision for this. This can only be done by:
1. Amending the Withdrawal Agreement. This wld need a negotiation (takes time) and comes with political risk (the whole agreement wld have to be "opened up", allowing both sides to play games with other elements of the deal). Given this, it's never going to happen)
2. Negotiating a new treaty that overrides the Withdrawal Agreement. technically a different approach to no. 1, but the problems are the same. So this is never going to happen.
And even if pigs were to fly & a new legal base was created, there wld be a political storm in the UK, since Parl. has legislated to prohibit an extension of the status quo transition (Section 33 of the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020). legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/1/s…
Although it is worth noting that, given the way this prohibition has been drafted, a new international agreement with the EU wld circumvent it, were govt. to attempt this, it could break the Cons in two, so...this is never going to happen.
Given all of this, suggesting that the status quo can be extended is classic unicorn territory, and it wld be best to leave the other lot to try to herd these mythical beasts.
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Decades of over-priced and unreliable train services have left the county’s 100s of 1000s of commuters in a constant state of expensive and exhausted frustration.
EU getting their fish in a row. Barnier making sure he knows exactly what room for manoeuvre there is. Perhaps a chance to squeeze some for a little more flex. No real signs of the EU walking away, or of the UK not running the clock for a few more days (weeks?).
This is absolutely excellent @DavidHenigUK. Perfectly summarises where we are, how we got here, and why a deal, no matter how thin is better than no-deal.
Interesting article from @jgforsyth on the geo-political impact of no-deal, but it’s been obvious for quite a while that the UK/EU relationship has been seriously wounded by Brexit & four yrs of insults (both petty & serious) and acrimonious negotiations. thetimes.co.uk/article/no-dea…
Deal, or no-deal, the UK and the EU are now set up to be economic rivals. The rushed negotiation on the future relationship ensures that there will be numerous loose ends come the end of the yr and disputes are almost inevitable.
At the beginning of the year, Pascal Lamy said that these negotiations would result in a “geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry…[couched] in nice friendly diplomatic language”. He’s right, although the nice language is often absent.