A coronavirus outbreak in an old-age home in Be'er Sheva, Israel: 12 out of the 30 vaccinated residents tested positive... but NONE had any symptoms at all.
The residents were tested after a staff member tested positive. They were all about a month from their second Pfizer dose.
Israel's Health Ministry is doing genetic sequencing on the virus to see what variant it is (most of Israel's cases now are B.1.1.7 lineage).
Obviously, this is good news. The vaccine is preventing disease in elderly people, which means it's working as intended.
But... 12 vaccinated people testing positive, all asymptomatic? I wonder if they were all actually *infected* at all. In a closed environment like a care home, could people test positive due to airborne virus lingering up their nose?
I'd also be interested to know viral load. Israel sometimes reports Covid tests as 'marginal' positives, where people test for the virus right at the edge of the PCR copy range. Was that the case here?
Active monitoring studies of working-age people from England and Israel show that the Pfizer vaccine is 85% effective against testing positive for the virus. Maybe older people are more likely to test positive asymptomatically?
Covid-19 deaths in Israel by vaccine status on *day of death*, which is likely 10+ days after day of infection. This might not look great at first glance, but it is. 90% of over-50s had received dose 1 by early February.
Vast majority of deaths are over-50s. So the dark blue group is drawn from 5-10% of the population of over-50s, while all the other colours put together are drawn from the other 90+%.
Put it this way: Even though 90-95% of Israelis over 50 are vaccinated, most Covid-19 deaths are from the 5-10% who are completely unvaccinated.
ANECDOTE ALERT: Kindergarten on my block was back for just one day when a teacher tested positive for Covid, putting 14 kids into quarantine. Of them, 7 have now tested positive. The B.1.1.7 lineage is no joke.
Teachers were offered priority access to coronavirus vaccines, but many delayed. This teacher had received her first dose a few days prior. She had mild symptoms but delayed getting a test.
Luckily, most of the parents were vaccinated earlier, so they will have significant protection. But the virus can spread in the home to other kids.
More evidence on vaccines and coronavirus transmission: Analysis of data from Israel's surveillance testing programme for care home workers suggests that the Pfizer vaccine cuts positive PCR tests by 88% (76%-92%) among 8,300 vaccinated workers compared to 2600 unvaxxed.
The care workers are actively tested, regardless of vaccine status, as part of Israel's programme to reduce care home infections. The analysis was restricted to workers who work in care homes whose residents were vaccinated centrally, to try and control for workplace exposure.
The analysis notes that other factors could be in play, for example care home workers who are unvaccinated might generally be people who behave more in more risky ways.
New data Pfizer vaccine effectiveness from Israel in the @NEJM in most comprehensive study so far of of 600k vaccinated people 7+ days from second dose:
92% against infection (88-95%)
94% against symptomatic Covid (87-98%)
92% against severe disease (75-100%)
No death stat? Well, the 1.2 million people in this study (600k vaccinated, 600k control) isn't enough to give a meaningful effectiveness against death from Covid, because only one of the 600k vaccinated people died 7+ days after the second dose.
These are really excellent numbers, albeit not the eye-popping effectiveness figures published by Israel's Health Ministry this week. One of the authors of the @NJEM study, @RanBalicer, previously suggested that the Health Ministry numbers were flawed.