In dealing with China today, US leaders should emulate successes & avoid mistakes from the Cold War. THREAD 1/

"American leaders must learn another lesson of the Cold War—détente with a communist regime also will not end confrontation or produce permanent cooperation."
"They tried that approach in the 1970s, and it didn’t work. ...The United States cannot end its great power ideological rivalry with China anytime soon. Instead, it must be managed." 2/
"That leaves only a third, complicated, nuanced path—a patient mix of sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, isolation and integration." 3/
"Such a strategy obviously must avoid war, but also abandon the false hope of partnership. Such a strategy must seek to reduce misperceptions, but also realize that some issues, no matter how many times they are discussed, will never be solved or reconciled." 4/
"Such a strategy must look for ways to engage the Chinese government on issues of mutual interest, but without checking our values at the door. " 5/
"Such a strategy must seek to deter Chinese expansionism when US vital interests are threatened, but not seek to block every Chinese investment, political partnership, or security arrangement around the globe." 6/
"And engagement with the Chinese communist regime must always be followed in parallel with engagement of Chinese society. These are the lessons of the last Cold War." 7/
Learning from the successes and mistakes in competing with the Soviet Union from the last century can help American leaders avoid a new, dangerous, and lethal Cold War with China in this century." Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

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More from @McFaul

1 Mar
I wrote this in 2009: "To pretend that the status quo [in the Middle East] can be maintained is wishful thinking. The real question is not whether existing political institutions will change, but how they will change." THREAD 1/
"Will the process of political change be evolutionary , as were the transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy in southern Europe in the 1970s or revolutionary, as in the case from the transition from monarchy to theocracy in Iran after 1979?" 2/
"Assuming that the configuration of autocratic regimes in place today will persist 50 years from now is much more naive than believing that some of these regimes might succeed in making the transition to democracy." 3/
Read 5 tweets
27 Feb
[During the Cold War] The overly expansive containment mission also pulled the United States into immoral alliances and partnerships as US presidents greenlighted coups, embraced dictators, provided aid to illiberal governments and movements, ... THREAD 1/
"and encouraged societal mobilization against communist regimes when chances of success were near zero." 2/
"These mistakes in the ideological fight during the Cold War must be recognized in order to help shape a more successful and nuanced policy of competition, containment, and engagement with China today." 3/
Read 4 tweets
27 Feb
"In the Cold War, American and European scientists cooperated on projects from nuclear weapons to computer design, animated in part by a common cause to compete with Soviet scientists. This collaborative spirit must be rekindled again." THREAD 1/
" A new union of democracies could develop collective responses to Chinese technological challenges and advance together shared policies and norms for" 2/
(1) nurturing cooperation between 5G and 6G suppliers in democracies (i.e., an industrial policy for fostering synergies among Nokia, Samsung, and Ericsson); (2) containing, exposing, and deterring digital meddling; 3/
Read 5 tweets
25 Feb
"During the Cold War, overzealous efforts at cooperation also produced mistakes." THREAD 1/
"... when pursuing détente, President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger wrongly assumed that their counterparts shared realpolitik theories about the stability of bipolarity and therefore sought to maintain equilibrium; that was a miscalculation." 2/
"In dealing with Chinese communist leaders for decades to come, US leaders must seek cooperation without being lulled into the false assumption that engagement can eventually end bilateral competition regarding power and ideology." 3/
Read 4 tweets
25 Feb
"In the last four years, the quality and quantity of contacts between American and Chinese officials has declined. Lessons from the Cold War suggest that they should be expanded again today." THREAD 1/
"As achieved even with the Soviet Union, the United States can simultaneously compete and engage, deter and cooperate with China as long as objectives are clearly defined." 2/
"Improved relations with China should never be a goal of American diplomacy in itself; at a minimum, interaction with hostile regimes is a method for acquiring better information about intentions and capabilities." 3/
Read 6 tweets
10 Feb
Putin's trolls want you to believe that all Russians despised me as a "fomentor of revolution." Yet everywhere I went as Ambassador to Russia, including even Putin's Sochi Olympics in 2/2014, Russians stopped me & asked to take photos with me. Maybe this is why Putin banned me?
At the Sochi Olympics in 2014, I was constantly asked to pose for these photos. These Russians are not "revolutionaries." & they approached me, not the other way around.
Until I was banned by Putin, hundreds of students would attend my talks at universities, And so we instead invited students to come my residence. These events would sell out in minutes.
Read 4 tweets

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