🧵 with FL, TX, GA, CA & MA + results on identification of B.1.351 & P.1 !!
FL: B.1.1.7 is ~40% of positives. 📈 about as predicted
Absolute numbers of B117 up despite overall 📉 in cases
2/
Texas
March 3: B117 were ~30% of positive tests.
26% with 5-day avg.
Absolute numbers of SGTF (a great proxy for B117 now) also going up despite big decrease in overall cases (as seen overall in US)
Note: this is only based on Helix data
3/
Georgia
March 3: B117 represents ~26% of positive tests.
Absolute numbers of SGTF (a great proxy for B117 now) also going up despite big decrease in overall cases (as seen overall in US)
4/ California
March 4: B117 is 27% of positives but 5-day avg is lower at 18%.
Absolute numbers of B117 do go up despite the big decrease in number of total cases, but it is perhaps less striking than FL, GA or TX.
5/ Massachusetts
MA is so interesting because in Nov & Dec it had a STABLE 3-5% of tests that were SGTF (S gene target failure). These were NOT B.1.1.7 (they were B.1.375 and other lineages with H69del).
As soon as B117 was detected in early Feb, fraction of SGTF started 📈
6/ Info on other variants
B.1.351 : variant of concern first identified in South Africa
4 cases: 1 in CT, 1 in FL, 1 in GA, 1 in NC
P.1 : variant of concern first identified in Brazil
3 cases: all in FL
2/
With overall number of cases 📉 quickly => important to look at % of positives that are B1.1.7
AND also the evolution of the absolute number of B1.1.7
Can do this based on Helix numbers,
or by multiplying % from Helix by overall number of cases reported by states and CDC
3/ CA: % of positives that are B117 now ~15-17%
Increase in absolute numbers of B117 is slower (compared to FL).
Still N of B117 is not decreasing, unlike the non-SGTF SARS-CoV-2 variants including B.1.429 & B.1.427 who are decreasing fast.
- New dashboard: you can check all lineages now
Random ex: B.1.1.64 in 4 states (note: I don't know anything about this variant). public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
- SGTF info up to Feb 15
- Seq info up to Jan 30
🧵 with more results
2/
Of the variants of concern, so far we only identified B.1.1.7 (666 times up to Jan 30). No B.1.351 and no P.1
We identified many B.1.429, a variant of interest. It represents about 20% of the sequences we do every day. But sampling is still biased for SGTF
3/
To assess fraction compared to non-SGTF sequenced, you can also get that info from the 2 files on Github with ALL of the data.