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6 Mar, 5 tweets, 1 min read
NEW: Senate passes President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, 50-49. Will he sent back to the House, passage looks assured. Will be the biggest achievement of his presidency so far.
The consequences of those two Georgia run offs just keep on flowing...
Extraordinary stat from Columbia University. They estimate if all the provisions of the Biden stimulus bill are passed it will *halve* child poverty in the US.
Remarkable projections. Columbia estimates that there could be a 57.7% reduction in child poverty if the bill is passed in 2021. Or 5.7 million kids.
They’re assuming a min wage increase to $9.50 an hour this year. That might or might not happen but even without it, other measures projected to have a substantial effect.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
8 Mar
Hard to imagine a worse set of headlines for the Royal Family (and therefore in a sense for the UK state). Worst schism within the royal family since the Abdication (one which seems unlikely to be healed). And a set of allegations which cannot be swept away. Image
It’s only one side of the story, question will be how the Royal Family responds and choose to give theirs. But as I say, doesn’t feel like one where studied indifference is going to do the trick.
Over a year ago, made this piece trying to set what was happening in some historical context. Said the most telling thing was that the schism had brought the Royal Family into the culture war. The interview has intensified that process further still.
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
5 Mar
There’s different ways to look at this. Public sector workers also could point out also that the govt has spent a huge amount on the furlough scheme which has hugely benefitted private sector workers (supported by their taxes).
It’s also true to say private sector employees benefit from the wages of the public sector being spent in/on their firms.

It makes sense to view the economy (and government spending decisions as part of that) as a whole unit, rather than a private/public split.
It’s also true to say that as the govt has shown over the past year, its spending power is huge.

As ever with its spending decisions, they’re choices, not laws of nature. Government could afford to give more if it spent less on something else or raised money elsewhere.
Read 7 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
4 Mar
Some interesting inclusions in Tier 1 for the government's levelling up fund priority 1 list

Derbyshire Dales (265th most deprived local authority in England)
East Northamptonshire (226th)
Lewes (194th)
Mendip (170th)
Newark (148th)
Richmondshire (251st)
Trafford (209th)
Of course, deprivation isn't the only metric the fund is about or seeking to address.

But we're still waiting for the exact formula.
That's of 315 local authorities in England.
Read 12 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
3 Mar
ANALYSIS

- Clearest sign yet of Conservatives grappling with their new electoral coalition and the political geography created by the 2019 general election
-Local/mayoral elections also clearly in mind.
- Economically for the next few years steady as she goes.
-but after that bigger changes to corporation tax/personal taxation and Sunak hinted might be more to come to "Pay off" cost of pandemic.
-Question is- why? As I reported last night, BoE financing our deficit/long maturity of our debt means pressure is minimal.
-Esp so given...
...OBR is forecasting pretty weak below trend growth beyond 2022. Many economists will argue best way to tackle debt and deficit is through growth and inflation.
-Other question is why set that out now, when there's so little foresight of what economy will look like.
Read 12 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
3 Mar
Chancellor: "It's going to take the country and the whole world a long time to recover from this situation...once we're on the way to recovery we will need to begin fixing the public finances and I want to be honest today about our plans to do that."

Early nod to the deficit.
As I reported last night there really is no need in the short or medium term for the Chancellor to be concerned about borrowing. How political rather than economic his approach is going to be will depend very much what he means by "once we're on the way to recovery"
Sunak says OBR forecasts that UK economy will return to its previous size six months earlier than forecast

But OBR says that in five years time British economy will be 3% smaller than it would have been

That is presumably on top of the forecast growth lost as a result of Brexit
Read 30 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
3 Mar
Nicola Sturgeon is giving evidence and providing an opening statement

“As a result of a mistake which was made, a very serious mistake- two women were failed and taxpayers’ money lost. I deeply regret that.” Image
“Although I was not aware of the error at the time I want to take the opportunity to apologise to the women involved and to the Scottish public.

My actions deserve to be scrutinised...firstly on the 8th Jan 2019 I volunteered to Parliament my contact with Alex Salmond...”
“I stated as follows: on 2nd April 2018 he informed me about the complaints against him. I will explain why I stand by that statement. Second, I will set out why I did not immediately record the April meeting within the Scottish govt a decision rooted entirely with my desire...”
Read 36 tweets

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