Thread by @ploehmann

#swfc How did the season end from here in the last 22 seasons?

Not many teams escape the bottom 3 in the last 12 matches.

Only 8 of 88 Play-Offs contestants have come from outside top 8 after 34 matches. Historically speaking it's a myth that everything is still up for grabs:

21st, Birmingham, are currently on course for 46 points at season's end. 18 points more than we have currently.

But the points won per game in the last 12 is for the bottom positions is higher than the first 34 matches - whereas it actually declines for the top positions:

50% of 21st positions have had points per game between 0.07 and 0.43 points per game higher in the last 12 than the first 34 matches.

For 21st this season it's a points per game in the last 12 matches between 1.07 and 1.43, meaning a finish of between 47 and 51 points.

That's also very close to the typical historical number of points won by 21st at season's end, where half of them have been with between 48 and 50 points:

To reach 48 points Wednesday would have to win another 20 points after today.

That *has* been done by teams in the bottom three before: 9 times in the last 22 seasons, including two last season:

20 points from 12 matches is 1.67 points per game, which is around what a team finishing 5th generally wins over a full season.

Winning 20 points will also be a tall order considering the fixture list for the run-in with only Millwall's run-in tougher than ours:

The gap to bridge is 7 points.

13 times have a team been 7 or more points adrift of 21st after 34 matches since 1998.

And, alas, none of them ultimately managed to survive relegation:

20 points would be 6 wins and 2 draws from the last 12, ie. no more than 4 losses.

We still have to play the current top 3 (Norwich, Watford, Swansea) and a trip to Oakwell with the form Barnsley is in looks ominous too.

Add Middlesbrough (A) and Cardiff (H), both still chasing the Play-Offs, and we're probably looking at these six being must win games for survival:

17 March: Huddersfield (H)
10 April: QPR (A)
17 April: Bristol City (H)
20 April: Blackburn (H)
1 May: Forest (H)
8 May: Derby (A)

It's beginning to look a lot like club history will have to be written for the season to not end in tears...

(as an addendum: The joint points haul of the three teams relegated from the EPL has never (since 1998) been higher than it is this season)

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