Thread by @jenniferdoleac

Reducing use of cash bail & pretrial detention should be an easy place for bipartisan consensus. Smaller govt + less infringement on civil liberties + research-supported! I'll gladly talk w anyone who's curious about the evidence & tradeoffs. #txlege

texastribune.org/2021/03/03/har…

For those requesting a reading list, here are a bunch of papers that cover the consequences of pretrial detention and cash bail, for those on the margin (that is, for those likely to be affected by policy changes):

"Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes" by @MeganTStevenson

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

@MeganTStevenson "The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention" by Paul Heaton, @sandy_mayson, & @MeganTStevenson

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal Yang

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…

"The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments" by @emilycleslie & Nolan Pope

journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…

"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by @AurelieOuss & @MeganTStevenson

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Note that whether to use cash bail & whom to detain pretrial are separate questions, and both are *also* separate from the choice of whether to use risk assessments to help make detention decisions. These issues are often conflated in the policy convo, which I think is unhelpful.

But if you're interested in the effects of using risk assessments in the pretrial context, you should check out the following:

"Assessing Risk Assessment in Action" by @MeganTStevenson

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

"If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions" by @AllbriteAllday

thelittledataset.com/about_files/al…

TL;DR

Detaining people pretrial leads to higher recidivism & unemployment (for those on the margin of release)

Eliminating cash bail may not affect who is detained, but doesn't appear to increase FTAs

Judges often ignore risk scores or implement them in ways we don't expect

Oh and of course there’s a @ProbCausation episode on this! With @MeganTStevenson:

probablecausation.com/podcasts/episo…