Banning the publication and circulation of a book is very different from the copyright owner voluntarily withdrawing the book from the press, with very different implications for censorship or “disappearing” materials. Weird that otherwise, smart people are just... ignoring this
By the way, it’s plausible that Geisel would have done this himself years ago, given how much he regretted drawing racist caricatures of Japanese people during their forced internment throughout WWII. Surely that adds a wrinkle to the story that makes this different from Lolita?
I think a good critique of stuff like this, besides that the outrage is manufactured for clicks or whatever, is that many people obsessed with overblown cultural threats to liberalism seem to not care at all about very pressing electoral threats to popular sovereignty in America.
If you’re writing more about Dr Seuss than competitive authoritarianism and minority rule, I think you’re being motivated by other things that just a stalwart defense of the liberal order — worth asking yourself what those things might be
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Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.230…
I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth
I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.
About half of Republicans’ gains among Hispanics happened before George Floyd’s death last year, and the trend show no signs of accelerating after. Large potential sorting on BLM/Defund, but little evidence it’s responsible for relative Dem losses — at least in these data.
Here are my estimates of Joe Biden's net approval rating in each state *among all adults*.
Note the wide margins of error, tho this is roughly what I'd expect based on uniform swing from a +4 election to +10-15 national net approval.
Controlling for 2020 and 2016 vote here. 1/
2/ Note the model is much closer to expectations when making estimates for the voting population, but still produces some odd numbers in GA and FL. Regularization in the south among col-educated whites is often an issue here, so again, emphasizing the MOE.
3/ These state-level estimates from national polls are good when we don't have state-level polls but aren't perfect. The point is to try to get a better picture of attitudes at the geographic level since we don't have national political institutions.
The Democrats' covid-19 relief bill polls above 50% in every state except Wyoming and North Dakota, according to my modeling of the last month's YouGov/The Economist polling. It's above 60% in 32 states, and supported by 64% of adults nationally.
Comparing the maps of majority state opinion and likely senate votes is really something
Senators have done a lot of shrugging off of national polls showing high demand for relief. Sometimes, on policies with marginal support, you can get a pass. But the electoral math does not work that way here. When something is this popular nationally, it's popular everywhere.
Weighting pollsters by their past accuracy is a really good idea that turns out not to improve forecasts that much, if at all. Some suggestive evidence: our vote share projections were better than 538’s in both 2020 and 2016 despite not adjusting for past error
All of this is muddied by assigning a letter grade to a pollster that gives more weight to “gold standard” phone pollsters that have little recent record of outperforming alternatives. It’s kinda easy to see this breaking down if you pay attention to evolutions in methodology.
I am going to take the opposite view from Lee and say this poll is actually pretty bad news, as it confirms stubbornly high levels of partisanship + leaning. After a decline from 2004 to 2014, the % of Americans choosing something other than true Independent has risen back to 91%
Partisans are more likely than ever to refuse to label themselves as Ds or Rs outright, but (even after the events of the last 2 months) are no more likely to actually disavow their party when pressed. GOP identity is as low as it was all the way back in [checks chart] Dec 2018.
Perhaps more people than ever want third parties, but the parties they want are more extreme than those on offer, so the leaned percentage increases & voting behavior get more predictable as frustration rises. (This is consistent with other Gallup data.)