Share this page!

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Twitter logo
8 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Not dunking on Josh here, the conventional wisdom is just way wrong on midterms: There is zero — zero — recent historical correlation between economic growth and midterm performance. It’s The Political Referendum, Stupid onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.230…
I think Dems could do better on average because of their various policy victories, yeah, but if they do it won’t be because of GDP or income growth
I agree with this -- my point is that people are operating from the assumption that growth -> Dems hold the House and Senate bc of "fundamentals" or whatever, when the only fundamentals for midterms are POTUS approval and which party holds the White House.
So, if giving people a bunch of money shores up Biden's approval ratings, that'll translate to increased odds of victory — but that could happen regardless of economic expansion over the next 16 months. Or, growth could explode, but people won't factor it into their vote.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with G. Elliott Morris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Mar
my fiancée says that when she was in high school, her history teacher would give them extra credit if they wrote “god bless ronald reagan” on their tests. let’s stop pretending students filtering or altering their views at school is in any way new or different
my history and english teachers would play fox news before class and go on rants about obamacare death panels, gun control and social spending like every week. urban conservatives do not have a monopoly on feeling out of place at school
by the way, this is public school
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
9 Mar
Last week's YouGov/The Economist poll, among Democrats:

Joe Manchin:
22% favorable
37% unfavorable
41% don't know/not sure

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:
73% favorable
12% unfavorable
15% don't know/not sure

Bernie Sanders
87% favorable
10% unfavorable
4% don't know/not sure
FWIW, Joe Biden is at 88% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 2% don't know/NA
Manchin's numbers don't really matter outside of WV, but these data illustrate some interesting divides within the party nationally
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
7 Mar
Banning the publication and circulation of a book is very different from the copyright owner voluntarily withdrawing the book from the press, with very different implications for censorship or “disappearing” materials. Weird that otherwise, smart people are just... ignoring this
By the way, it’s plausible that Geisel would have done this himself years ago, given how much he regretted drawing racist caricatures of Japanese people during their forced internment throughout WWII. Surely that adds a wrinkle to the story that makes this different from Lolita?
I think a good critique of stuff like this, besides that the outrage is manufactured for clicks or whatever, is that many people obsessed with overblown cultural threats to liberalism seem to not care at all about very pressing electoral threats to popular sovereignty in America.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
6 Mar
About half of Republicans’ gains among Hispanics happened before George Floyd’s death last year, and the trend show no signs of accelerating after. Large potential sorting on BLM/Defund, but little evidence it’s responsible for relative Dem losses — at least in these data.
Similar story in 2016, FWIW:
Losses were driven in part by broader ideological concerns, esp about “socialism”:
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
4 Mar
Here are my estimates of Joe Biden's net approval rating in each state *among all adults*.

Note the wide margins of error, tho this is roughly what I'd expect based on uniform swing from a +4 election to +10-15 national net approval.

Controlling for 2020 and 2016 vote here. 1/
2/ Note the model is much closer to expectations when making estimates for the voting population, but still produces some odd numbers in GA and FL. Regularization in the south among col-educated whites is often an issue here, so again, emphasizing the MOE.
3/ These state-level estimates from national polls are good when we don't have state-level polls but aren't perfect. The point is to try to get a better picture of attitudes at the geographic level since we don't have national political institutions.
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
3 Mar
The Democrats' covid-19 relief bill polls above 50% in every state except Wyoming and North Dakota, according to my modeling of the last month's YouGov/The Economist polling. It's above 60% in 32 states, and supported by 64% of adults nationally.

ImageImageImageImage
Comparing the maps of majority state opinion and likely senate votes is really something ImageImage
Senators have done a lot of shrugging off of national polls showing high demand for relief. Sometimes, on policies with marginal support, you can get a pass. But the electoral math does not work that way here. When something is this popular nationally, it's popular everywhere.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @gelliottmorris has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @gelliottmorris!

Read all threads by @gelliottmorris