I'm finding it fascinating to see traditional finance and business people first trying to get their heads around BTC, then other crypto protocols, then Defi and now NFT's. 1/
At every singe stage in the rapidly evolving ecosystem they have used mean-revertionist thinking as opposed to exponential network effects analysis and therefore everything looks like a bubble or a misallocation of capital.
This is how we were all taught in finance.
With that thinking almost everything reverts to a mean of zero ("it is just Beanie Babies!"). But that misses the fact that even if some, or many project fail, many others are truly building network effects over time
And that can include 90% S-curve downside in price, but the exponential curve of those that DO survive drives them to new heights over time.
As thousands of projects, all pushing boundaries, go through he same survive-or-die and then network effects, the entire ecosystem rises.
Then add in the reluctance to want to believe that the Metaverse is a real thing - that our digital existence and physical existence are blurring and combining.
People fear change in general, so push back but over time the change gains trust and acceptance.
Much like with the PC and the internet, cynicism gives way to optimism as people understand the change will benefit them.
As the internet of value and trust accelerates, it is going to destroy more large old business models than maybe the internet itself.
I know this sounds grandiose and hyperbolic, but the TAM of the transfer, storage, accretion of value is the largest and most valuable on earth.
And with a prize like that, the digital asset revolution has more than enough incentive to adapt, thrive and survive in ways we yet cant imagine
And the best thing about this revolution, unlike the internet, is we all get to financially participate, with no barriers.
This space will not be a $1.7trn ecosystem as it is today but a multi-hundred trillion dollar ecosystem eventually.
You can embrace change or fight it, but you owe it to yourself to understand it as the pace of innovation is going exponential too...
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Remember the Bitcoin Super Massive Black Hole? The idea was that BTC would massively outperform all other assets, sucking in liquidity as it goes. Well, how is it doing this year?
Gold - At the last chance saloon? Gold is now ignoring the dollar, rates and any other correlation and just falls every day. It is approaching monumental support...
Add to that the Daily DeMark signal tomorrow...
And the weekly 9 this week, right on the key support...
Im doing a lot of thinking around currency debasement and how to measure it. You see, I think everyone looking for it to appear in CPI inflation is likely to be frustrated due to the lack of wage inflation, debt, demographics, technology and globalisation.
We know there is asset price inflation, cause by the printing of money. Here is MSCI World Equity Index. +263% since QE started in 2008.
But when we change the denominator to the G4 Central Bank Balance sheets, we can see that equities have traded sideways since 2008, basically counteracting the balance sheet expansion (and are probably cheap currently as 0.15 appears to be the mean)
It appears that the "Bitcoin is not ESG friendly" is the narrative that I think was started at the ECB to slow institutional adoption, and is now spreading to the media (see today's Guardian for example).
1/
I have had a few institutional asset allocation committees reach out for clarification as they are concerned with ESG mandates vs their desire to own bitcoin.
I want to set them at ease that this is a false narrative.
2/
I know a few of you have looked at this but is there a definitive article on there true costs or relative costs (outside of the cost is very low to secure the blockchain, which doesn't really help the institutions)?
3/
When @JuliaLaRoche discovered me on twitter languishing with less than 1000 followers I explained I was on a mission to democratise the kind of financial information only hedge funds and others got. The world I exclusively lived in.
But I felt people needed and wanted more. They wanted the paying field levelled so they could take control, with confidence and knowledge.
I didn't quite imagine it would blow up like this with 400,000 friends on Twitter. You helped create Real Vision and I can't thank you enough. Hopefully we've paid you back for being part of this incredible journey. Even if just on FinTwit.
Hopefully this is useful for people who struggle with BTC's price action. To most is looks like a bubble because we are trained in mean-reversion (i.e. this time is not different) of linear-trend assets. 1/
A classic example would be the 1980 silver bubble that eventually reverted back to price trend.
But digital assets are EXPONENTIAL trends driven by network effects. These are powerful long-term secular shifts are very different in nature to linear trends. As investors, we really aren't experienced in this, in general. So we apply our old bubble framework and it doesn't work