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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

8 Mar

Remember the Bitcoin Super Massive Black Hole? The idea was that BTC would massively outperform all other assets, sucking in liquidity as it goes. Well, how is it doing this year?

+75% versus the S&P 500..

+86.5% versus the NDX

+101% versus Gold

Read 9 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

7 Mar

I'm finding it fascinating to see traditional finance and business people first trying to get their heads around BTC, then other crypto protocols, then Defi and now NFT's. 1/

At every singe stage in the rapidly evolving ecosystem they have used mean-revertionist thinking as opposed to exponential network effects analysis and therefore everything looks like a bubble or a misallocation of capital.

This is how we were all taught in finance.

With that thinking almost everything reverts to a mean of zero ("it is just Beanie Babies!"). But that misses the fact that even if some, or many project fail, many others are truly building network effects over time

Read 9 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

3 Mar

Im doing a lot of thinking around currency debasement and how to measure it. You see, I think everyone looking for it to appear in CPI inflation is likely to be frustrated due to the lack of wage inflation, debt, demographics, technology and globalisation.

We know there is asset price inflation, cause by the printing of money. Here is MSCI World Equity Index. +263% since QE started in 2008.

But when we change the denominator to the G4 Central Bank Balance sheets, we can see that equities have traded sideways since 2008, basically counteracting the balance sheet expansion (and are probably cheap currently as 0.15 appears to be the mean)

Read 18 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

25 Feb

Bitcoin Twitter - a bit of help needed:

It appears that the "Bitcoin is not ESG friendly" is the narrative that I think was started at the ECB to slow institutional adoption, and is now spreading to the media (see today's Guardian for example).

1/

I have had a few institutional asset allocation committees reach out for clarification as they are concerned with ESG mandates vs their desire to own bitcoin.

I want to set them at ease that this is a false narrative.

2/

I know a few of you have looked at this but is there a definitive article on there true costs or relative costs (outside of the cost is very low to secure the blockchain, which doesn't really help the institutions)?

3/

Read 4 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

23 Feb

@JuliaLaRoche

When @JuliaLaRoche discovered me on twitter languishing with less than 1000 followers I explained I was on a mission to democratise the kind of financial information only hedge funds and others got. The world I exclusively lived in.

But I felt people needed and wanted more. They wanted the paying field levelled so they could take control, with confidence and knowledge.

I didn't quite imagine it would blow up like this with 400,000 friends on Twitter. You helped create Real Vision and I can't thank you enough. Hopefully we've paid you back for being part of this incredible journey. Even if just on FinTwit.

Read 11 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

22 Feb

Hopefully this is useful for people who struggle with BTC's price action. To most is looks like a bubble because we are trained in mean-reversion (i.e. this time is not different) of linear-trend assets. 1/

A classic example would be the 1980 silver bubble that eventually reverted back to price trend.

But digital assets are EXPONENTIAL trends driven by network effects. These are powerful long-term secular shifts are very different in nature to linear trends. As investors, we really aren't experienced in this, in general. So we apply our old bubble framework and it doesn't work

Read 12 tweets

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