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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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9 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Unlike most GOP restrictions on mail voting, this one targets a group of voters who backed Trump in 2020
Womp womp
For what it's worth, Fox News didn't know this either and that's why they prematurely called Arizona for Biden
I am blown away by how many responses are along the lines of this, but maybe I shouldn't be

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
8 Mar
Would you support or oppose the following electoral system? (described in following tweets; poll in this tweet)
Basics:
--Four days of in-person early voting, including a weekend
--No excuse absentee voting, but application and ID required; ballot must be received by poll close (can drop off at staffed site (precinct)
--Same day and auto reg.
--Voter ID required, described in next tweet
Voter ID requirement met by one of the following: government issued photo-ID with address; two forms identification, both with name at least one with address (say, a utility bill and student ID); a sworn declaration by you and a reg. voter with ID who vouches for you.
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
28 Feb
No one is particularly interested in a grand bargain on election administration, but the new GOP focus on mail balloting really does open things up, on paper (emphasis on “on paper”)
Why? Well, for starters, and as I've said a few times--to the objection of many twitter replies lol--no excuse absentee mail voting is certainly something Democrats ought to be able to negotiate on from the standpoint of both self-interest and lower-case 'd' democratic values.
Obviously, that basic fact really opens up the room to negotiate (again, on paper).
At the same time, ending absentee mail balloting rationalizes many reforms to improve accessibility that Ds would ordinarily be alone in demanding (like a national election holiday)
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
22 Feb
This is only one obvious example of a broader tendency in Dem/progressive electoral thinking in recent years, which really wants to reduce elections to be turnout and electoral strategy to grassroots organization
It's a romantic view, since there's no secret of the progressive love of organizing. It's also a convenient view, since it shields activists from questioning their views or whether they represent who they say they do. It's also self-justifying: the solution is more campaign staff
And it was reinforced by the contrast of Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout.
Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) away in the same way
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
17 Feb
FWIW, there's a fine anti-mail ballot opinion /thinkpiece piece to be written from the left/Dem standpoint, and it could easily be an element of a hypothetical but not-going-to-happen bipartisan bill intended to improve the electoral system
There's no serious reason to think Democrats benefit from mail absentee voting and it does have some downsides for the electoral system. Dems could even trade it for something they should care about, if a bipartisan electoral bill was possible (doubt it)
There are many disadvantages: ballots cast before all info available, days before a result, unsecured ballots in transit, depends on often late third party delivery, mediocre verification leads to *both* unneeded rejections and credibility issues
Read 8 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
11 Feb
What happened in Georgia just can't be exported to the Midwest. That's not to say that organizing and party building is irrelevant and that there couldn't be any lessons. But the outcomes aren't replicable
nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opi…
The core of what happened in Georgia since, say, '06 has happened almost everywhere in the country. It just works out to the Democratic advantage in Georgia in a way that it hasn't elsewhere
1) Obama mobilized a huge and partly durable increase in Black voter turnout. That largely happened between 04 and 08; it subsided partly since 12, and it helped Ds more in GA-->30% black--than anywhere else that matters.
Hence, Obama only lost by 5/8 pts in Bush+17 state
Read 10 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
5 Feb
I've never really understood the case against this, given that the Democrats could always go to reconciliation in the end (as Manchin notes), and I'd be interested to read it
The case for it seems straightforward:
--Quicker action on the most time sensitive vaccine/COVID aid, which could have been done already
--A political/public opinion benefit to a) bipartisanship; b) multiple bills
--An unknown shot that bipartisanship breeds bipartisanship
The case against it mainly boils down to delaying the package as a whole, but:
--Democrats still control timing, and can bolt whenever conditions merit it
--Much of the package isn't *that* time sensitive
--Delay can be the excuse that lets progressives get to 2000 dollar checks
Read 6 tweets

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