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Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
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10 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Canada floods the mortgage market with cheap cash to create tons of homebuyers.

... just ahead of new anti-money laundering rules they were pressured to adopt

... right before beneficial ownership registries become mandatory...

... during a money laundering inquiry. 🧐
2/
On the upside:

- give money launderers warning they won't be able to hide in homes in a few months

- let homebuyers borrow more money during the warning period

- your money laundering expert witness "disappears" during a inquiry

Laundering stats will be nice and low!
3/ I'm not discounting the stars have aligned for incompetence, but this is amazing stuff.

The federal government also disassembled the financial crimes unit in Ontario. We have money for "whatever it takes, for as long as it takes" ... except this

thestar.com/news/investiga…
4/ Interesting when you consider @scoopercooper found the BC government disbanded the RCMP unit in charge of stopping money laundering in 2009, as soon as the RCMP alleged organized crime was laundering in the province.

Budgets, amirite? 😂

globalnews.ca/news/6403415/o…
5/ Organized crime isn't a partisan issue btw.

They end up owning any government when the people in charge of reporting the issue to authorities (or authorities themselves) are scared of the criminals.

Like the cartel says, plata o plomo.

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More from @StephenPunwasi

Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
11 Mar
I hate real estate as an investment. Some people call me anti-developer.

One of my best friends is one of the biggest real estate developers in America.

Here's what we candidly discuss in terms of housing affordability and supply, that most will never understand.

<thread> 👇🧵
2/ First, let's talk about developer motivation.

When do developers build rentals? When it's most profitable.

When do developers build homes for sale? When it's most profitable.

It's never because they have a deep desire to build housing. Glad that's out of the way.
3/ How do you determine what will be more profitable?

Rentals are based on the gross yield they receive. Since rents are tied to income growth, it can only grow as fast as an economy.

Now selling a house? That grows as quickly as people can borrow money.
Read 10 tweets
Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
23 Feb
Okay, quick lesson so you'll understand the economy better than politicians.

The velocity of money is the rate at which each dollar travels through the economy, captured in GDP.

A high velocity economy is what benefits the most people, and is the gold standard.

<thread> 🧵👇
2/ In a high velocity economy, every dollar you spend ripples through the economy quickly.

Let's say you go to a restaurant, and buy a sandwich. That $10 (it was a pricey sandwich) goes to the shop, who spends it on at the grocery store, who spends it at a wholesaler, etc..
3/ This is a high velocity transaction. Each dollar you spent had an impact throughout your local economy.

At some point (2000), Western economies got tired of increasing GDP by velocity. Instead, they decided they were going to try to grow it by *credit*
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
22 Feb
Let it fail.

Government intervention makes it worse. Prices rose across Canada *because* of the government.

They thought prices would fall 30%, and tried to stop it by pumping billions into the market.

The idiots overestimated the pandemic though, and sent prices soaring.
2/ If the government "saves" the market once more, Justin Trudeau's legacy will be ruining the lives of 2 generations.

This isn't a political exaggeration. The setup is similar to the cause of Japan's hikikomori.
3/ Hikkomori are middle class kids become socially withdrawn from society. They live with their parents, and don't rarely leave the home.

Why? Because what's the point. You can't make enough to have a life, or afford a home. That's for rich kids, that have a safety net.
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
19 Feb
A VC once told me to invest in anything that can be used for *legal* money laundering.

Not to make money from the launderers, but because the launderers will hide activity in businesses, boosting the likelihood of legit businesses hopping on.

Heck of an investment thesis.
2/ It turns out the whole gig economy was a great use case.

Renting a room that goes for $100/night in a hotel for $2,000/night on a short-term rental site doesn't set off any red flags, or capital currency controls.

It also isn't subject to laundering regs. 🤣
3/ Also incredible how simple the operations are.

Person A buys a house, and rents it.

Person B gets people to rent from abroad. Don't show up, just pay.

Person A uses the revenue to secure more assets, and expand operations. Brings a new meaning to ghost hotel.
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
18 Feb
Doug Ford’s a master at playing the opposition and public.

Everyone’s focused on the idiotic things he says, and are now totally ignoring that he just took control of almost all of the land planning in the province.

#onpoli
“Doug’s such an uneducated fool! Let’s miss his biggest move this year, and focus on him apologizing.”

Yeah, someone’s a fool. He’s not as dumb as he looks, he just doesn’t care. Huge difference.
3/

What happened:
- Doug consolidated power for planning revisions

- Doug “expanded” the conservation area.

- the expansion is on the condition a super highway is built.

A highway to nowhere, where you can dispute land use under his appointed roof. Probably nothing.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Punwasi Profile picture
18 Feb
Boomers: "You can't cancel $50k in student debt. I paid for my degree!"

It also only took you a summer to pay off your degree, and will take students 10+ years now.

This is also what they're doing with housing.
I say this as someone that paid their tuition (multiple times!) by having an after school, and sometimes before school, job.

What's the point of having advanced education, if they're so loaded with debt they can't take risks at new jobs? Student debt is a drag on growth.
I know some Boomer is going to read this and say, "they can do what you did!"

So many points, but I was one of those giftie nerds. I learn in a very short amount of time. Most people can't, and they shouldn't jeopardize a whole degree to reduce debt.
Read 7 tweets

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