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11 Mar, 15 tweets, 4 min read
The Ertugrul Turn in the Indian Subcontinent.

The next stage of the top-down Pakistan-Turkey geopolitical engagement and deepening of ties has started to take shape.

While the National Strategy may get formulated at the Top, its dissemination downwards requires a Cultural Turn.
PM Imran Khan is on record, of wanting Pakistan to replicate the Turkey model under his leadership.

The Ambassadors of distilling the strategic change into the cultural consciousness of a geography are often the National and Local Celebrities.

Turkish Game of Thrones is key. ImageImage
PM Imran Khan had been urging Pakistani’s to watch the 2014 Turkish TV Series Dirilis: Ertugrul.

COVID lockdown, gave the opportunity to plant the seeds of Pakistan’s cultural integration with Turkey with Imran Khan urging Pakistani youth to watch “Resurrection: Ertugrul”
Imran Khan advocated dubbing the series in Urdu for general public can to understand.

Penned by Mehmet Bozdag, an acclaimed filmmaker with links to Turkeys ruling AKP party, it is a deeper message of Islamic beliefs with a story of fight against all odds

images.dawn.com/news/1183827
Imran Khan: Our children should watch Ertuğrul, to differentiate between real Islamic culture and “3rd hand” one that reaches via Hollywood/Bollywood.

“Ertuğrul is an important character - Father of Osman Gazi, founder of Ottoman Empire, which ruled the world for 600 years.”
Ertuğrul knocked PM Khan’s socks off because of what he often describes as ‘a shared Islamic history’. Ever since his promotional speech, Ertuğrul has been creating waves in Pakistan.

To say that Pakistan’s roots lie in India is borderline blasphemy, for we are first Arabs/Turks
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government is hell-bent on promoting Imran Khan as Pakistan’s Ertuğrul.

Ali Muhammad Khan, state minister of parliamentary affairs, tweeted a photo praying to Allah to bring back the ‘golden era of Muslims’.

theprint.in/opinion/letter…
Pakistanis have taken Ertuğrul’s history to heart and genuinely started believing that the 12th century Turk belongs to them.

Many local artists aren’t amused with “Turkey turn”

Pakistani TV Series/Dramas are the most popular and widespread source of entertainment in Pakistan. Image
Even before Pakistan’s independence, Muslims of the British Raj banded together under the Khilafat Movement of 1919-1922 in support of the crumbling Ottoman Empire.

The Khilafat—or Caliphate—was a symbol of global Muslim unity.

foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/05/ert…
Ertugrul’s popularity has a deeper political significance.

Pak-Turkey bilateral relations used to be political, military, and economic.

Current Focus - Deepening Cultural connections

Erdogan is making a play to restore Turkey to its historic role as the leader of Sunni Muslims
Turkey understands the power of narratives.

It is a smooth employer of soft power, savvy to all the manipulations and delicate handling necessary to build a new image, rewrite history, and erase both the slander and the truth about a nation’s past.
Viewers see the Ottomans in their strongest and most capable avatars—never as sultans at the helm of a dying empire.

Turkey’s public broadcaster TRT’s mandate - “internationalization of value-based, family-friendly content.

Sees itself as “the channel for the next 5 billion.”
Next Phase?

Joint Production on Turk Lala, an important figure head in the pre-partition Indian Khilafat Movement.

Imran Khan: It is unfortunate that the new generation is not aware of the golden era of Muslims’ rule in the “Sub-continent”.

geo.tv/latest/328818-…
In this quest of reinvention of Civilizational Narratives around India, what is the role being played by Indian Broadcasters; OTT Players and above all the Indian State will define much of the Geopolitical and Domestic Political environment over the defining, forthcoming decade.

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More from @anavrta

1 Feb 20
Ok let’s tackle the elephant in the room first. And primarily there are two of them.

1. Non Starter Personal Income Tax Cuts; and

2. Cues from Equity Markets.

The non starter personal income tax is disappointing for the middle class. It’s unlikely many will opt for new rates
For people to shift to new structure, their effective tax rate should have been lower than the proposed new structure.

While it doesn’t make sense for high income earners availing housing loans/HRA exemptions to shift, even many below 15lakhs won’t likely shift to new rates.
Essentially, the decision comes to minimizing the Tax Outgo for a salaried individual.

Rather than giving ones earnings to the government, one would rather invest, even at the inconvenience of lower near term personal disposable income.

Proposed DTC rates fail the threshold.
Read 15 tweets
27 Aug 19
Your savings lie in 2 bank acs - Bank B (for contingencies) & in Bank A (for daily expenses).

Due to an externality, you estimate that your expenses > than income + Bank A savings.

You have surplus savings in Bank B.

Will it be a good move to transfer the surplus from B to A?
In absence of this transfer, you may have to borrow to meet the expenses for the contingency.

Would it not be preferable to minimize increasing the debt burden when surplus savings can help partly meet the contingency?

That essentially is what’s happening with RBI transfer.
1. On behalf of We The People, Government manages the Public Exchequer. (Bank A)

2. Government (We The People) is the shareholder of RBI (Bank B)

3. Transferring Surplus from Bank B to Bank A does not alter claim of We The People.

4. It is an accounting entry for WTP!
Read 8 tweets
15 Jul 19
Borrowing rates for most developers have surged to the highest in more than a decade, in some cases about 20%.

Mortgage lenders struggling to roll over debt amid downgrades in their credit ratings.

Limited disbursals from committed Pre-sanctioned limits

livemint.com/industry/banki…
Tough time to be a lender.

Even tougher to be a Regulator!

RBI can at most ensure systemic liquidity remains well provided.

How can the RBI enforce last mile liquidity which has dried up due to loss of risk appetite among lenders amidst defaults/rating downgrades?
Real Estate and Real Estate Funding has been one of the least transparent and complex areas of Indian lending.

Disclosures by Dewan Housing, a AAA rated entity Jan-19, highlight the sources or risk aversion among banks/investors towards NBFCs and Real Estate financing at large.
Read 19 tweets
4 Jul 19
Dr. Urjit Patel’s presentation at Stanford is an extremely detailed and thoughtful analysis of Indian Banking.

Provisioning policy of Indian Banks has long been at odds with the Loss Given Defaults of lenders.

From Subbaro to Patel, all governors have called for this correction
Dr. Patel has dispassionately analyzed why Indian Banks have been structurally challenged.

He rightly calls out the failures on part of key stakeholders: Banks, RBI and Government.

The analysis has been broken down into Pre 2014 and Post 2014.

The buck stops with Pre 2014 Govt
The Post 2014 Analysis makes for an insightful read to understand the building blocks of the measures taken to structurally rebuild Indian Banking.

Interesting to note the challenges in the systematic turnaround despite the Legislative, Regulatory and Financial interventions.
Read 8 tweets

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